BJP or Grand Alliance: Who will win Bihar?
By Vaibhavi Pathak
| Saturday, November 7, 2015 - 01:58
Starting in October, the people of Bihar voted in five phases. The results will be counted on Sunday, Nov 08.
Bihar, the third-largest state of India is home to 104 million people. With these numbers in mind PM Modi was seen campaigning extensively for his party in Bihar, addressing at least 30 campaign rallies. His government is in a minority in the Rajya Sabha, which is selected on the basis of the strength of parties in state assemblies. A win in Bihar will improve Modi's chances of building the parliamentary strength that he desparately needs to get his reforms pushed through.
The Bihar election is being seen as a barometer of many key issues shaping Indian politics — the changing roles of caste and religion, and the rising aspirations of a young population.
The Exit Polls, done following the final phase of polling yesterday unfolded the following:
Will the ruling Janata Dal-United JD(U) and its allies win around 140 seats?
If we are to go by the numbers of the recent Exit Polls, Nitish Kumar may continue as the most popular CM candidate in Bihar. His party is projected to win a good number of seats along with the other parties of the Grand Alliance. Going by the Exit Polls, the team is expected to grab 42% of the vote share.
Will BJP and its allies gain control of the 243-member Bihar assembly by winning about 100 seats?
Though the BJP exuded confidence about their victory, they may be in for a disappointment. Current surveys project the party slipping, with them securing a mere 39% of the total vote share. Will this loss prove to be a blow to 'Brand Modi?'
Will the smaller parties manage about 23 seats?
Will the votes won by the 'Others', the 19% vote share, help if there is a hung house in Bihar? Only time will tell which of the parties in the 'Others' group will win how many seats and who will be wooed by whom to get to the magic number.
The following methodology was used to predict the Exit Polls:
The Poll of Polls was conducted by five well-known agencies—CNX, CVOTER, CICERO, NIELSEN and CHANAKYA. While CNX, CVOTER and NIELSEN predicted a victory for the Grand Alliance, CICERO and CHANAKYA have predicted a win for the BJP and its allies.
Are we headed for a hung house in Bihar?
Watch this space for further updates...