India will overtake China as the fastest growing emerging economy in 2015-16 by clocking a growth rate of 7.5 per cent on back of recent policy initiatives, pick-up in investments and lower oil prices, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today.
While India’s growth rate is expected to improve from 7.2 per cent in last fiscal to 7.5 per cent this year and next fiscal, China will witness a deceleration with growth rate sliding from 7.4 per cent in 2014 to 6.8 per cent in 2015 and 6.3 per cent a year after.
IMF’s growth projection, however, is lower than the estimates of the Finance Ministry and the RBI. The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16, while RBI has estimated it at 7.8 per cent.
“India’s growth is expected to strengthen from 7.2 per cent last year to 7.5 per cent this year and next. Growth will benefit from recent policy reforms, a consequent pick-up in investment, and lower oil prices,” said the IMF’s World Economic Outlook released ahead of the IMF-World Bank meetings beginning April 17.
India would be represented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and other officials in the meetings.
In its 2015 World Economic Outlook, the IMF has improved India’s growth prospects for the current fiscal as well as next fiscal by 1.2 per cent and 1 per cent over its January projection.
The upward projection for India by IMF comes at a time when other economies are not likely to show improvement in economic performance.