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The figure was better than the average Wall Street estimate. Photo Courtesy: AFP
The figure was better than the average Wall Street estimate. Photo Courtesy: AFP

Exports push up US GDP to 3.3% pace

Thu-Aug 28, 2008

Washington / Agence France-Presse

The US economy defied predictions of a downturn in the the second quarter as exports helped growth accelerate to a 3.3-percent annualized pace, the government said on Thursday.

The Commerce Department revised up last month's estimate of a 1.9-percent pace of growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

The figure was better than the average Wall Street estimate of 2.7 percent and showed a strong acceleration from the 0.9-percent rate of the first three months of the year.

The latest figures, helped somewhat by a massive economic stimulus, suggest the world's biggest economy had more momentum than previously thought by analysts, many of whom anticipated recession.

"For a recession the economy is certainly growing very quickly," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.

"A lot of that growth is driven off exports and pessimists might say that can't continue during slowing growth overseas, but I would say this happened precisely during the period of slowing growth overseas ... this is still an economy that faces slow times but not a recession."

Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates, said he sees conflicting signals in recent economic data.

"A lot of the monthly indicators are suggesting recession but things like new orders and GDP suggest the economy is improving."

The revised report showed trade alone accounted for 3.10 percentage points in the overall growth rate. It showed exports surged 13.2 percent (up from an earlier estimate of 9.2 percent) while exports fell 7.6 percent instead of 6.6 percent.

Consumer spending, the largest component of economic activity, was up a modest 1.7 percent, just 0.2 points more than previously estimated, despite a massive 168-billion-dollar government stimulus package that sent out tax rebates to tens of millions of people.

The main drag on growth remained the housing sector, with investment in residential property slumping 15.7 percent, not as bad as the 25.1 percent slide in the first quarter.

Business spending grew 2.2 percent and government expenditures by 6.8 percent.

A key inflation index linked to GDP rose 4.2 percent while core prices excluding food and energy were up 2.1 percent.

Still, few analysts expect the current growth pace to continue since consumer spending is sluggish and a rebound in the dollar may curb growth in exports.

The US Federal Reserve has held its base rate at a low 2.0 percent as part of an effort to fire up a lagging economy hurt by tight credit and weak housing. But in the past few months the central bank has indicated the next move will likely be an increase to keep inflation pressures in check.

The central bank called for 2008 growth in a range of 1.0 to 1.6 percent, up from an April projection of 0.3 to 1.2 percent.
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