Can India Become The World’s Third-Largest Economy By 2031? What IMF Forecast Revealed

From the U.S. and China’s dominance to India’s rapid rise, IMF forecasts reveal how the world economy could transform by 2031. The struggle for economic leadership is entering a new phase. And perhaps the biggest story isn’t who’s winning, but who’s rising the fastest. Visual Capitalist recently analysed the IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, to see what the global economic order might look like in 2031. Analysts expect the US and China to be the two biggest economies in the world by a distance. But there will be a lot of movement down the pecking order, though, and the Indian growth story could really take flight.

Nominal forecasts imply that in 2031 India will overtake even some of history’s giants of growth to become world #3, and some, like Russia, will have slipped even further. Initial estimates illustrate how demographics, investment, technology and productivity might transform growth during the next five years.

Top 10 World’s Biggest Economies Expected In 2031

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (figures rounded)

Still, the U.S. and China Play In Different Leagues

The IMF even expects the U.S. and China to be significantly ahead of the rest of the world by 2031.

The US economy is expected to be worth $39 trillion, while China’s could reach nearly $27.5 trillion. The combined output of the two economies will be around $13 trillion, reinforcing their leadership in investment, manufacturing, technology and global flows of capital.

But both economies are under stress. China has demographic challenges and slower population growth. The U.S. still faces rising debt and political divisions.

The Defining Story Might Be India’s Economic Rise

India is another country that stands out in the IMF forecasts.

Economists predict India to expand by 63.5% from 2026 to 2031, beating other top economies in the region. By 2028, the IMF predicted the country would overtake both Japan and the UK to hit a GDP of 5 trillion dollars and beat Germany by 2031.

This would place India in the position of the world’s 3rd economy – one of the largest leaps ever up the economic pecking order of the world.

Some of the biggest reasons behind these drivers include India’s young population, an increasing consumer market, investments in digital infrastructure, and the global expansion of businesses in the nation.

Europe’s Resilience But Slower Growth Expected

The UK, France and Germany still rank within the world’s top seven; however, their growth rates are expected to be considerably lower than those emerging in the region.

Germany is still forecast to be Europe’s biggest economy, but India’s predicted growth rate could see it fall a place by 2031.

Russia Will Face A Rare Economic Contraction By 2031

While India is likely to be one of the biggest growth stories of the decade, Russia is a different story altogether.

According to Visual Capitalist, IMF projections indicate that Russia is on track to be the only major economy to see its nominal GDP shrink between 2026 and 2031. Russia experienced growth that was more than twice the size of its economy during the 2016-2026 period, one of the strongest expansion phases among large economies, but this growth is now expected to slow and reverse.

Russia’s GDP is set to decline from $2.66 trillion in 2026 to around $2.62 trillion by 2031, with developing and advanced countries such as Brazil, Canada and Mexico climbing higher in the global GDP rankings.

Among the structural headwind risks are that the Russian economy is still dependent on oil and gas exports, productivity growth has remained stagnating and Western economies such as the U.S. And the EU is increasing sanctions.

But demographics may be the bigger long-term challenge beyond trade and sanctions. With the decline in population and workforce – which has increased sharply since the Ukraine war – growth possibilities for Russia may be constrained in the next few years.

The Implications Of The 2031 GDP Forecasts For The World Economy

Economic heft doesn’t equal influence, but it drives trade and investment flows, policy power, and global business leadership.

These forecasts could mean the next decade will be known as the one where economic leadership becomes more widely shared, although the U.S. and China will still be firmly in the lead.

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