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The Danish Defense Intelligence Service has issued a stark warning that Russia could be prepared to launch a large-scale war in Europe within five years if it perceives NATO as militarily weak or politically divided. The assessment comes as former U.S. President Donald Trump continues to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the ongoing war in Ukraine or face severe economic sanctions.
Russia’s Military Intentions and NATO Concerns
According to a report cited by Politico, Russia is actively strengthening its military capabilities with the potential goal of engaging in a regional conflict with one or more NATO members. The intelligence assessment warns that Moscow may be more inclined to use military force if it believes NATO lacks cohesion or if the U.S. appears unwilling to support European allies in a direct confrontation.
The report also outlines various scenarios regarding the Ukraine war’s outcome. If the conflict ends or becomes frozen, Russia may not have the capacity to engage in multiple wars simultaneously. However, should the Kremlin assess an opportunity, it could initiate hostilities with a neighboring country within six months and a regional war in the Baltic Sea within two years. A full-scale European war could occur within five years if the U.S. remains disengaged.
Trump’s Pressure on Putin and NATO Commitments
As the geopolitical tensions rise, Donald Trump has once again urged Putin to end what he calls the “ridiculous” war in Ukraine. He has also threatened widespread U.S. tariffs on Russian exports should Moscow refuse to comply.
Trump has long been vocal about NATO’s funding, demanding that European allies increase their defense budgets to at least 5% of their GDP. During his previous term, he suggested that the U.S. might withdraw from NATO if members did not meet their financial commitments. More controversially, he hinted that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO members that failed to contribute their fair share, raising concerns about the alliance’s future unity.
Possible NATO Response and European Security
The Danish intelligence report did not account for a potential strengthening of NATO’s defense capabilities, but European nations have been ramping up their military spending in response to Russian aggression. The possibility of U.S. disengagement, however, has led to increased discussions about Europe’s independent security strategies, including deeper military cooperation within the EU.
As the global political landscape continues to shift, the coming years could determine whether Europe will face another large-scale military conflict or if diplomatic efforts and deterrence will be enough to prevent escalation.
