A rash of defections, dissidence and mergers in some of India’s largest opposition parties might push the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) within striking distance of two-thirds majority in Parliament, needed to pass constitutional amendments implementing delimitation of constituencies and women’s quota.In the 2024 general elections, Bharatiya Janata Party won 40 Lok Sabha seats with NDA restricted at 293, well short of the two-thirds majority. But after the recent round of assembly polls in five states and UTs, BJP is looking to turn the tables on the Opposition. In Bengal, if the proposed merger of 20 rebel Trinamool Congress MPs with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI) goes through. Barasat MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, the de-facto leader of the rebel group, has already said they will back the NDA and PM Narendra Modi in Parliament.
Shiv Sena Split
On Wednesday, six Lok Sabha members of the Shiv Sena (UBT) wrote to Speaker Om Birla, asking to form a separate grouping. The party, which has nine lawmakers in the Lower House, issued a whip, asking its MPs to attend a meeting of the party’s parliamentary unit on Thursday. Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut alleged that the rebels are being bought. “I got a call from an important person. He said each MP was offered ₹50 crore to leave the party. ₹15 crore was given as an advance. I was even told the MPs were not willing to sit in the chartered planes till they were given the advance,” he claimed. If the rebel Sena (UBT) leaders have their way, NDA numbers might reach 319.
Samajwadi Party Split
In UP, speculation of a split in Samajwadi Party started swirling on Wednesday after state minister and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party chief Om Prakash Rajbhar claimed a major split was likely in SP. “SP will witness a major split. Ram Gopal Yadav has handed over a letter to Union home minister Amit Shah,” Rajbhar said on X. He added that the situation was not limited to Maharashtra and West Bengal and that “the entire SP is ready to join the BJP”.
In a veiled attack on Rajbhar, Akhilesh Yadav said on X, “Those making predictions should clarify whether the BJP is actually offering their party 75 seats, 50, or merely empty assurances. The people who paid them advances — based on rumors they spread about getting 30 seats through an alliance with the BJP — are now looking for them.” Talking to reporters, he added: “The SP remains united.”
Two-Thirds Majority For NDA
In the current 540-member Lok Sabha, the NDA has 293 members and needs 360 for the bill’s passage. The NDA, which has 149 members, needs 164 votes in the 245-member Rajya Sabha. After the June 18 Rajya Sabha polls, the NDA numbers are expected to rise to 155. In addition, there are at least three vacancies created by the resignations of TMC Rajya Sabha members earlier this month. With the BJP controlling 208 of the 294 members in the West Bengal assembly, Rajya Sabha bypolls in the state are expected to go in the BJP’s favour.
The big winner from all these changes will be the NDA, which could almost touch its goal of two-thirds majority before the monsoon session begins. The fraction is crucial, since it is key to pushing through Constitution Amendment Bills. Two-thirds of the 543 Lok Sabha seats is 362. But with three seats vacant, the majority figure becomes 360. At present, the NDA, including the breakaway faction of the Trinamool Congress, has 318 MPs in the Lok Sabha. The Opposition has 184 MPS. There are also 38 MPs who are non-aligned. So, to pass Constitution amendment Bills, the government needs 42 MPs.
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
