The first week of July has already rewritten the rainfall record for Mumbai, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reporting that the Colaba observatory received 791 mm of rain between July 1 and 7, crossing its entire July climatological average of 768.5 mm. At the Santacruz observatory, 879 mm of rainfall was recorded during the same period, just short of its monthly average of 919.9 mm. The intense spell comes even though the country continues to experience El Nino, a climate pattern that usually delays the arrival of the southwest monsoon. This year, the monsoon reached Mumbai nearly two weeks later than normal before turning active by the end of June and bringing heavy rain across the city and coastal Maharashtra.
As per reports, scientists say there is no contradiction between El Nino and the recent downpour. While El Nino still affects when the monsoon begins and how active it becomes, they say global warming is now changing the way rainfall behaves once weather systems develop.
Mumbai rain pattern is changing as global warming reshapes the monsoon
Experts say rising temperatures over land and sea are allowing the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Instead of rainfall being spread over several days, it is now falling in short but extremely intense bursts. Such spells can overload drainage systems, trigger flash floods and expose weak urban infrastructure.
According to reports, Dr K. J. Ramesh, former Director General of the IMD, said, “During El Nino years, the number of rainy days is lower. But we know that the character of the monsoon has changed permanently due to global warming. Rainfall now tends to occur in short-duration, high-intensity spells, whether there is an El Nino or not.”
Mumbai sees multiple weather systems combine to produce intense rainfall
Dr Raghu Murtugudde, Emeritus Professor at the University of Maryland and former professor at IIT Bombay, said several weather systems worked together to produce the exceptionally heavy rain over Mumbai.
As per reports, he said, “Mumbai saw a delayed onset, which is partly explained by El Nino. But the global warming pattern over West Asia and changes in Arabian Sea winds have also played a role, as expected. The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are both feeding moisture into the monsoon system, and a low-pressure system is developing over the Bay of Bengal. When both systems are active, the core monsoon zone receives heavy rainfall, and that moisture also reaches Mumbai. The Western Ghats force the moisture-laden air to rise, resulting in heavy rain over the city.” He also said El Nino can no longer be viewed separately from global warming because both increasingly influence monsoon behaviour.
Mumbai forecast points to lighter rain after record-breaking spell
The latest spell also reflects a longer-term trend. Mumbai’s average annual rainfall increased from 2,325.8 mm during 1981-2000 to 2,672.7 mm between 2001 and 2024, an increase of 346.9 mm, or nearly 15 per cent, as per reports.
Reportedly, in the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, Santacruz recorded 94 mm of rainfall and Colaba received 90 mm, the first time in five days that both observatories stayed below the three-digit mark. BMC data showed 78 mm of rain in the western suburbs, 77 mm in the eastern suburbs and 46 mm in the island city. The IMD has kept Mumbai under a yellow alert, but its five-day forecast says only light rainfall is expected across the city and neighbouring Thane, with no heavy rain warning currently in place.
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Khalid Lateef is a Sub-Editor at NewsX Digital, specializing in Indian politics and global affairs. He also covers viral trending stories and major crime developments.
