In politics, distance is often an illusion, today, two very different states seem to be moving along tense lines. That is exactly what is happening in Maharashtra and West Bengal right now. Two of India’s most powerful regional leaders Uddhav Thackeray and Mamata Banerjee are suddenly facing the same uncomfortable reality: internal rebellion, shifting loyalties, and the fear that their political organisations are no longer as tightly held together as before.
What makes this moment striking is not just the depth of rumours, but the similarity of the pattern. Both Shiv Sena (UBT faction) and the All India Trinamool Congress are dealing with questions of survival, control, and trust. And in both cases, the crisis is not coming from outside it is emerging from within.
What Is Really Happening Inside Shiv Sena (UBT)?
Shiv Sena (UBT) camp is facing a second wave of rumours that could lead to defections. The party is yet again under pressure to establish whether six of its nine Lok Sabha MPs are in touch with the rival-led Shiv Sena faction with Eknath Shinde at its head. Sanjay Raut has strongly denied such allegations and reiterated that defection of its Lok Sabha MPs is highly unlikely.
Core problem for the party, however, is insecurity. The first wave of defections after the 2022 split within the Shiv Sena left the new Shiv Sena faction run on a shaky parliamentary foundation and now the new wave of defection is also considered as a potential threat.
Party leaders are trying to communicate within. There have been emergency meetings in the capital city and assurances even on the dais were given by Uddhav Thackeray to the MPs that if they want to leave, then they should go. With the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena now in the ruling coalition in Maharashtra, the threat to defections is real and the current crisis in the party has arisen as a result of political calculations.
TMC Rebel MPs dissatisfaction
A more public and organised crisis has emerged within the All India Trinamool Congress from its stronghold of West Bengal. A group of rebel MPs has openly challenged the leadership of former chief minister, Mamata Banerjee and is looking to have themselves recognised as an official separate faction in the House.
According to sources, about 19 MPs have joined that group- Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, Satabdi Roy, June Malia, Yusuf Pathan, Saayoni Ghosh, Mala Roy, Arun Kumar Sinha, Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and several others. They are no longer just a problem; they are ready to take formal political action as well.
Rebel leaders met Loksabha speaker and they are set to merge with Tripura based Nationalist Citizens Party, They are not only dissatisfied, they are ready to act on it.
The main cause is a sense of injustice within the party over the structure of top-down decision making with senior leadership involved in most decisions and no consultation with its group of MPs and workers. They feel that they have no voice in the party and are out of the loop.
Another factor, and already evident even within the leadership, is post index election stress within the group. Tensions that have been brewing between seniority and the second tier party members have gone from non-existent to explosive. Leaders disagree on everything, which proves that there is no absolute loyalty to the party, or the leader.
Why Are Shiv Sena (UBT) and TMC Facing the Same Kind of Crisis?
Similarity between both parties lies in their structure. Both organisations were built around strong, centralised leadership models. In Shiv Sena (UBT), authority revolves around Uddhav Thackeray. In TMC, it revolves around Mamata Banerjee. While this model ensures discipline in stable times, it becomes fragile during uncertainty.
When decision-making is concentrated at the top, dissatisfaction has fewer internal channels to express itself. Over time, it turns into silent resistance and eventually, visible rebellion or defection attempts.
Another shared factor is political opportunity. Both Maharashtra and West Bengal are highly competitive states where rival camps are seen as strong and resource-backed. This creates a perception among MPs and MLAs that switching sides may offer better political stability or future prospects.
Can Uddhav Thackeray and Mamata Banerjee face the Situation?
Both leaders still retain strong personal influence and mass appeal. However, the current crisis is not about public support it is about internal confidence. The challenge for both Uddhav Thackeray and Mamata Banerjee is to rebuild trust within their own organisations before it erodes further.
For Shiv Sena (UBT), the immediate test is preventing another visible split that could weaken its already fragile parliamentary strength. For TMC, the challenge is to stop the rebel MP movement from turning into a formal breakaway faction.
These parallel crisis say a broader trend in Indian opposition politics: regional parties are increasingly vulnerable to internal fragmentation when under pressure. Leadership strength alone is no longer enough to guarantee organisational stability.
At this stage, neither Shiv Sena (UBT) nor TMC is collapsing. But both are clearly in a stress phase where internal loyalty is being tested more than ever before. And in politics, the most dangerous cracks are not the ones that are visible immediately but the ones that begin quietly from within.
Sofia Babu Chacko is a journalist with over five years of experience reporting on Indian politics, crime, human rights, gender issues, and stories about marginalized communities. She believes journalism plays a crucial role in amplifying unheard voices and bringing attention to issues that truly matter. Sofia has contributed articles to The New Indian Express, Youth Ki Awaaz, and Maktoob Media. She is also a recipient of the 2025 Laadli Media Awards for gender sensitivity. Beyond the newsroom, she is a music enthusiast who enjoys singing. Connect with Sofia on X: https://x.com/SBCism
