May 19 is going to be the decision day for BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa government as on Saturday, the newly-formed BJP government will have to win a trust vote on the floor of the Karnataka Assembly. The BJP formed the government in the state on the strength of being the single largest party and was invited by Governor Vajubhai Vala. However, the Congress-Janata Dal Secular (JDS) alliance approached the Supreme Court against Vala’s decision to give the BJP a chance to form the government and not inviting them despite being the single largest group.

The BJP currently has 104 MLAs but to win the trust vote, it needs 112 (in a de facto House of 222 MLAs). So, is there any other way for the BJP to prove majority in the House. Take a look at these permutations and combinations by which the BJP can still win the trust vote in the Karnataka Assembly.

The BJP has 104 MLAs and it has to prove trust vote in the 222-member Assembly. Elections to Rajarajeshwarinagar and Jayanagar constituencies will take place on May 28 and June 11 respectively. But the BJP needs to prove its majority tomorrow.

If the BJP gets the support of Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP) MLA R Shankar, Independent MLA H Nagesh, who according to reports has pledged support to both BJP and Congress. The party can also be supported by 2 Congress rebels, Anand Singh and Pratap Gowda, who are reportedly in Delhi. If we subtract 1 MLA, who will be appointed Pro Tem Speaker (in this case KG Bopaiah), and also minus JDS leader HD Kumaraswamy’s seat as he fought from two seats. If 8 Congress/JDS Lingayat MLAs quit, then BJP will only be needing 107 MLAs to prove majority.

This is the possibility that the BJP is expected to utilise to win the trust vote. However, if the BJP fails to do so in the trust vote, then the Governor will have no option but to invite Congress-JDS alliance to form the government under the leadership of HD Kumaraswamy, who has already been elected by their MLAs.

Many theories are doing the rounds with one also suggesting the BJP may split the JDS by luring Kumaraswamy’s elder brother HD Revanna, who analysts say, has been often uncomfortable at his younger sibling’s moments in the limelight. Revanna won from Holenarasipur seat and could be offered the Deputy Chief Minister post, unlike the Congress “sacrifice” of offering the CM seat to potential ally JDS, the BJP is keen that Yeddyurappa occupy the chair.

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