India-US Trade Deal LIVE UPDATES: India-US Interim Trade Deal Likely Within 48 Hours

India and the United States are nearing a breakthrough on an interim trade deal, with talks extended in Washington to resolve differences. While the US seeks access to India’s agricultural, dairy, and genetically modified crop markets, India remains firm due to concerns over farmers’ livelihoods and food safety. New Delhi is pushing for tariff concessions on key labour-intensive exports like footwear, garments, and leather. Sources suggest agriculture and dairy may be excluded from the deal. Both sides are now focused on reciprocal tariff cuts, with hopes that Indian exports to the US could double in the next three years.

Indian stock markets opened with gains on Thursday, but caution prevailed as investors remained concerned about the looming US tariff deadline.

The Nifty 50 index began the day at 25,505.10, rising by 51.70 points or 0.20 per cent. Similarly, the BSE Sensex opened at 83,540.74, marking a marginal gain of 131.05 points or 0.16 per cent.

Market experts noted that while domestic factors are supporting the market, global volatility, especially uncertainties around the US-India trade deal, is keeping traders on edge.

(Source: ANI)

India and the U.S. are locked in ongoing trade negotiations, with experts urging a face-saving compromise. Former Indian envoy to the U.S., Meera Shankar, told NDTV Profit that “there are no carrots” for India in the current U.S. stance and described Trump’s approach as a “stick-first” tactic. She also warned against overconfidence in India replacing China in U.S. markets. Meanwhile, Pramod Bhasin, Chairman of ICRIER, told NDTV Profit that much of Trump’s rhetoric should be ignored and that India can reduce tariffs on products like whiskey, wine, and walnuts to boost exports without harming domestic producers.

Trump aims to boost U.S. market access in India, while both sides recognize the deal’s strategic value. India’s trade team remains in Washington, with talks ongoing. Meanwhile, Trump warned of higher tariffs on Japan and confirmed a new trade deal with Vietnam, reducing tariffs from 46% to 20% on several goods.

(Source: Reuters)

Beyond the immediate interim deal under discussion, both sides are working toward a broader Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). The first phase of this ambitious pact is expected to be finalised by fall 2024, with the ultimate goal of more than doubling bilateral trade from $191 billion now to $500 billion by 2030.

The United States is pressing India to slash tariffs on a range of agricultural exports, including apples, tree nuts, and genetically modified crops, as it seeks greater access to the Indian market. In contrast, India is pushing for preferential treatment for its labour-intensive exports like textiles, garments, gems and jewellery, leather goods, and select farm products such as shrimp, oilseeds, grapes, and bananas.

U.S. and Indian negotiators are racing to finalize a tariff-reducing trade deal before President Trump’s July 9 deadline, but key disputes over U.S. agricultural and dairy exports remain unresolved. India refuses to lower tariffs on genetically modified crops to protect farmers but is open to easing tariffs on fruits, medical devices, and energy products. Talks continue in Washington, with both sides recognizing the deal’s strategic importance. Trump expressed optimism, highlighting India’s 1.4 billion consumer market, while also warning of steep tariffs on Japan. Negotiators are working intensively, but no final agreement has been announced yet.

(Source: Reuters)

The biggest sticking point is farm exports. India-US agricultural trade is relatively modest at $8 billion, with India selling rice, shrimp, and spices, while the US exports nuts, apples, and lentils. However, as trade talks advance, Washington is pushing for greater access to India’s market for maize, soybeans, cotton, and corn to help reduce its $45 billion trade deficit with New Delhi.

Experts warn that granting tariff concessions could put pressure on India to scale back its minimum support prices (MSP) and public procurement policies, which are vital safeguards that protect millions of farmers from market volatility by ensuring fair prices and stable crop purchases.

“No tariff cuts are expected for dairy products or key food grains like rice and wheat, where farm livelihoods are at stake. These categories are politically and economically sensitive, affecting over 700 million people in India’s rural economy,” Ajay Srivastava, former Indian trade official who runs Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), tells BBC.

The uncertainty in the India-US trade deal revolves around some critical sticking points, with agriculture topping the list.

“There are two real challenges to concluding an initial agreement. First on the list is US access to the Indian market for basic agriculture products,” Richard Rossow from Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies told the BBC. “India will need to protect its basic agriculture sector for economic and political reasons,” said Rossow who tracks India’s economy.

The second issue, according to him, is “India’s non-tariff barriers”. Issues like India’s growing set of ‘Quality Control Orders’ (QCO) are significant obstacles to US market access and may prove tricky to meaningfully handle in a trade deal”. Challenges such as India’s expanding list of ‘Quality Control Orders’ (QCOs) pose major barriers to U.S. market access and could be difficult to address effectively in a trade agreement.

The Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (QFIM) held in Washington placed strong emphasis on the importance of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and respect for international law, according to a United States State Department official.

The four-nation group, comprising India, the United States, Australia, and Japan, also reaffirmed their joint commitment to a free, open and peaceful Indo-Pacific region, and expressed serious concern about terrorism and ongoing regional challenges.

US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Mignon Houston told ANI that the Quad members had a clear and shared focus during the meeting on core principles that ensure peace and cooperation in the region.

India may agree to lowering tariffs on items such as walnuts, cranberries and other fruits, besides medical devices, and autos and energy products, Reuters quoted sources from India’s commerce ministry as saying.
A US source, meanwhile, told the news agency that there were “indications” that the talks “are close” and a potential announcement is likely soon.

The source familiar with the talks said “there has been intense and constructive effort to close a deal” as both sides understand it’s important from the strategic point of view too, other than economic.

President Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One Tuesday that the deal with India could cut tariffs for both countries, and help US firms compete in the massive Indian market of 1.4 billion consumers.

Trade talks between the US and India started last Thursday, and a trade delegation from India has been in Washington since, Reuters quoted Ministry of Commerce sources as saying. The report said they may stay longer to agree on a deal, but one that would not compromisr on key agricultural and dairy issues. The ministry sources told Reuters that lowering tariffs on genetically modified corn, rice, wheat, and soybeans grown in the US was unacceptable.

The Indian government “doesn’t want to be seen as surrendering the interests of farmers – a strong political group in the country”, the report quoted one of the sources as saying.

India-US Trade Deal: US and Indian trade negotiators continued discussions on Wednesday in an effort to finalize a tariff-reduction agreement ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline. However, key differences remain, particularly over US dairy and agriculture access, according to Reuters, which cited sources familiar with the matter.

The ongoing talks come on the heels of Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam, under which US tariffs on a wide range of Vietnamese goods will be reduced to 20%, down from a previously proposed rate of 46%. Trump also claimed that US products would be allowed to enter Vietnam duty-free, though specific details of that arrangement have not yet been disclosed.