Sunday, December 10, 2023

2022 MCD Exit Polls: All the Details Here

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All eyes are focused on the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) election results, which were held on Sunday and saw more than 50% of the 250 municipal wards turn out to vote.

If there’s one takeaway from the MCD exit polls then it’s the voting pattern of the people of Delhi. It’s clear that the people of the National capital are able to differentiate between local & central issues when it comes to voting for local municipal polls. The people of Delhi have shown this trend earlier in the assembly & Lok Sabha polls as well, where the AAP & the BJP respectively ended up winning with a landslide of over 50% vote share and in these MCD polls, the same pattern seems to be repeating.

The Congress which faced another crushing defeat in a state which they once famously ruled for 15-yrs under Sheila Dikshit also shows how the AAP is emerging as the number one threat for the grand old party. It seems clear that the Cong’s vote bank has shifted lock-stock & barrel to the AAP and the party needs a revolutionary plan if it wants to turn around its fortunes. The space which Cong ceded has been totally taken over by the AAP, relegating the grand old party to a distant third. For the BJP as well the results have immense learning, the first & foremost being on the importance of local leadership. The lack of state-level leadership in Delhi seems to have hurt the saffron party’s prospects.

The results also show that the BJP”s bid to corner AAP & especially Kejriwal on the issue of corruption doesn’t cut any ice with the electorate. While there’s some silver lining for the BJP, it has been able to keep the AAP engaged in Delhi at the time when polls were taking place in another key state like the home turf of PM Modi. The next challenge for the BJP will be to find a robust local leadership, a face from the state who can take on Kejriwal in Delhi. While Kejriwal’s double engine pitch may have worked in the AAP’s favor with the MCD & state govt most likely to come under them, the battle for MCD funding may be far from over as the unification of MCD has ensured that the money comes directly from the Home Ministry’s coffers. Will these polls bring some respite to the Aam Aadmi of Delhi, we will have to wait & watch.

The contest is a three-way race between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and Congress, with 1,349 candidates in the running and more than 1.45 crore voters.

It should be mentioned that the BJP won 181 of the 270 wards in the 2017 local election. About 53 per cent of the population was voting at the time. However, it seems like AAP and BJP are in a tight race this time. Additionally, the AAP has to do well in the exit poll if they want to increase its support before the general elections in 2024.

But this year looks like the tables have toppled for BJP if exit polls are to be believed AAP will attain approximately 150-175 and BJP will barely manage to win 70-92 seats this year leaving Congress with just 04-07 seats.

The seat share is expected as:

BJP: 70-92 = 39-42%
CONGRESS: 04-07 = 05-07%
AAP: 150-175 = 49-52%
OTHERS: 01 = 02-04%

While exclusively talking to NewsX, Pooja Tripathi, the spokesperson of Congress, reiterated that AAP is incapable of handling Delhi and given its record with the liquor scam and corrupt leaders, it is safe to say the people of Delhi want a change from both the BJP and AAP and want to continue with the legacy that late Sheila Dixit left behind for behind.

Shivam Chabbra, the spokesperson of the BJP elucidated that the people of Delhi showered a large number of love on the party and likewise the party is confident that history will be repeated.

AAP spokesperson Siddharth Sharma stated that the people of Delhi have grown tired of hollow promises and are seeking a change, and that breath of fresh air is AAP.

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