The greatest inventions are born at the time of adversity. As India witnesses an unprecedented rise in Covid-19 infections under second wave, Indian Institute of Science (IISC) Professor Sashikumar has developed a multi-dimenionsal PDE model of Covid-19 pandemic, which is able to provide predictions for confirmed, recovered, active and deceased Covid-19 cases. This model provides a paradigm shift in mathematical modelling of infectious diseases.
Giving a detailed projection of Karnataka with assumptions, the researchers have also underlined that the key to containing the pandemic lies in quarantining individuals with active cases. The adaptive quarantine function in the model further ensures that infected population is quarantined based on their infection level.
Such a data-driven model assumes greater importance at a time when India is reporting a daily spike of over 2L cases. With the spike in cases, the hospital situation across the country is further worsening with shortage of beds, medicine and oxygen.
A double Covid-19 mutant has also been found across 10 states including Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal, Gujarat and others. These mutants have been detected in about 14,000 samples so far and are playing a role in rapid Covid-19 cases. However, it cannot be said that they are 100% responsible for the rise in cases. As per latest reports, the double mutants are a greater cause of concern because RT PCR tests are ineffective to detect these double mutants.