With 2.81 lakh new infections recorded in the last 24 hours, India’s daily Covid cases fell below 3 lakh for the first time in 25 days. The number of active cases in the country has also decreased by over a lakh, to 35.16 lakh. According to the ministry, ten states — Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Gujarat, and Chhattisgarh — account for 74.69 percent of the country’s total active cases.

79 percent of the latest recoveries also come from these ten states. Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Haryana were responsible for 74.7 percent of the 3,11,170 new cases recorded in a 24-hour period, according to the ministry.

The estimated national mortality rate is 1.09 percent. The positivity rate continued to rise during April and into the first week of May, but now there are indications that it may be leveling off. Earlier, the State Bank of India (SBI) research study had predicted that India’s Covid second wave peak could occur in the third week of May.

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All signs from coronavirus numbers in India over the last two weeks indicate that the second wave of infections has hit, or will reach, a peak in the coming days. However, the end of the second wave could still be a long way off. It took five months for the number of cases to drop from 98,000 a day during the first wave to about 10,000 per day. India will begin at a much higher point this time. That would imply that the second wave’s descent will take that much longer.

In addition, unlike the first wave, the decline did not begin immediately after the high. The regular count fluctuates so much that we don’t know if the number of cases in India has peaked. If the Maharashtra curve, which has closely mirrored India’s for the majority of this pandemic, is any indicator, there will be a prolonged plateau and a gradual decline.