Lok Sabha Elections 2019: The Lok Sabha Elections 2019 will witness its last phase of polling on Sunday, May 19. Votes have been polled in 542 Lok Sabha constituencies, and on May 23, the actual votes will be counted. However, before counting the actual votes, the exit polls will provide all of us a rough idea regarding the wave of voter’s preference for a particular party. Indeed, over the years the survey of voters had been instrumental during the election process. Still, several times, these predictions have provided a mixed track record which has shaken off our general analysis of the voters’ preference.
First Exit poll background
The Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) had been popular for generating the exit polls in India since 1960s. For the uninitiators, the first serious media poll surveys began in the 1980s, with psephologist Prannoy Roy who teamed up with David Butler.
Since, it’s first exit poll, the reliance over these exit polls have been increased. At every election, is curiosity is created to now whom they have voted. However, here the main question arises regarding the reliability of these exit polls. There are several examples where exit polls’ have been proved completely a blunder.
1999: Overrated NDA’s win
In the year 1999 elections, several polls exaggerated the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA’s) win. They predicted that NDA overwhelming 315-plus seats. However, in reality, it won 296.
2004: Perfect example of failure
Exit polls in 2004, was completely a failure. Every pollsters could not forsee the Congress recovering its win. Some favoured the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party, while others couldn’t give BJP win. However, all exit polls anticipated BJP’s win.
2009: Missed on spot win of UPA
In the year 2009, again a disappointment. The exit polls were not accurate. Mostly, the predictions forecasted the United Progressive Alliance’s win (UPA). However, it missed the fact that it will have an additional 40 more seats.
2014: Chanakya was spot on
In 2014, various exit polls had placed BJP’s prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi on a road to be India’s prime minister. It predicted BJP-led NDA to cross the 272-mark, a simple majority for the 543-member Lok Sabha to form the government. While the Congress was showcased as its worst tally of below 100.
The exit polls conducted by several TV channels in 2014 predicted BJP’s win, however, it was not spot on. Consecutively for the second consecutive time, in 2014, Chanakya was spot on in predicting the final result of the election. It was the only exit poll that was closest to the verdict of 505 million voters.
Even the consumer research agency RNB Research predicted 340 seats for the NDA. BJP’s share was recorded as 291 seats on May 12, 2014 that is on the last date of the polls. It placed 70 for the UPA and 57 for the Congress.