Seat Share & Vote Share Predictions
The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey predicts the BJP to retain power in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming assembly elections. Of the 403 seats, BJP+ is expected to win 218-223 seats with a 40.9% vote share.
SP+ is expected to emerge as a strong opposition, securing 152-157 seats with a 36.4% vote share. BSP is expected to get 19-22 seats with a 12.3% vote share, INC is expected to win only 5-6 seats with a 5.9% vote share. Others are expected to get 0-2% seats with a 4.5% vote share.
Favourite CM Candidate
47.51% of the respondents want to see Yogi Adityanath retain his chief ministerial candidature in 2022. The survey reveals that Yogi Adityanath is equally popular amongst female (49.14%) and male (51.51%) respondents, more popular in the age bracket 36-45 years (55.62%), amongst Upper Caste Hindus (64%), and in the Awadh region (62.74%).
SP’s Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as a strong contender against Yogi Adityanath. 38.93% of the respondents opted for Akhilesh as their choice for Chief Minister in 2022. Votes of the remaining respondents split amongst Mayawati (5.31%), Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (3.42%), and others (4.83%).
Poll Rallies Amid Omicron Surge
When asked about conducting physical poll rallies amid a surge in Omicron cases, a whopping 60.8% of respondents disagreed with the idea, whereas only 24.75% expressed support for physical rallies.
Will Religion Be A Deciding Factor
46.52% of respondents believe that religion will be a deciding factor in the polls, 4.32% said to some extent; while 39.23% said it is not, and the remaining 9.94% can’t say/ don’t know.
Law & Order Situation
A majority of respondents (78.68%) lauded the improvement in the law & order situation of the state. However, only 47.30% of the total respondents see the change as drastic, 31.38% say there has been only a slight improvement, and 12.67% of respondents say that the law & order in the state has deteriorated under the Yogi government.
PM Modi’s Security Breach In Punjab
Lastly, 46.28% of the respondents blamed the Congress government for mishandling PM Modi’s security in the state, 30.42% of the respondents didn’t blame Congress.