Monday, August 8, 2022

Polstrat-NewsX Pre-Poll Survey: Who’s winning Uttar Pradesh?

The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey has predicted that the Bhartiya Janata Party is expected to retain its stronghold in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming assembly elections. Of the 403 seats, BJP+ is expected to win 235-245 seats with a 42.70% vote share. Region-wise, the party is expected to win 67-70 seats in Awadh, 14-17 in Bundelkhand, 37-39 in Western & Brij region, 38-42 in Poorvanchal, 46-49 in Paschim Pradesh, and 30-33 in Rohilkhand. 

SP+ is expected to emerge as a runner-up by securing 120-130 seats with a 33.00% vote share. Predictions suggest that it would be a tough task for BSP and INC to keep their ground in the election battlefield up against BJP & SP. While BSP is expected to get 13-16 seats with a 13.40% vote share, INC is expected to secure only 4-5 seats with a 9.90% vote share. Others are expected to get 3-4 seats with a 1% vote share. 

Next CM face 

43.50% of the respondents want to see Yogi Adityanath retain his chief ministerial candidature in 2022. The survey reveals that Yogi Adityanath is popular amongst female (49.80%) respondents in comparison to male (42.70%) respondents, in age bracket over 56 years (55.50%) compared to rest, amongst Upper Caste Hindus (65%), and in Western & Brij regions (46.80%) than others. 

SP’s Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as a strong contender against Yogi Adityanath. 42.10% of the respondents opted for Akhilesh as their choice for Chief Minister in 2022. Votes of the remaining respondents split amongst Mayawati (7.10%), Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (3.80%), and others (3.80%). 

Key Voting Issues

When asked about the biggest voting issue ahead of 2022, the majority of the respondents said jobs (43.20%), followed by crime (18.00%), infrastructure (15.00%), other issues (12.10%), caste (6.60%), and MSP (5.10%). 

43.80% of respondents said that religion is still a voting issue for them, 12.70% said to some extent; while 30.80% said it is not, and the remaining 12.70% said they can’t say/don’t know. 

BJPs biggest achievements in the last 5 years 

26.10% of respondents feel Ram Mandir is the biggest achievement of BJP in the last 5 years in UP, followed by other achievements (21.90%), highway construction (21.50%), reducing mafia raj (15.50%), vaccine rollout (11.10%) and doubling state GDP (3.90%)

 Farm Laws Repeal 

Lastly, 42.70% of the respondents believe the repeal of the farm laws will be beneficial to the BJP in UP, while 39.50% of respondents believe that it won’t. 8.80% said maybe, and 9% can’t say/don’t know. 

Seat share & Vote share Predictions

The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey has predicted that the Bhartiya Janata Party is expected to retain its stronghold in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming assembly elections. Of the 403 seats, BJP+ is expected to win 235-245 seats with a 42.70% vote share. Region-wise, the party is expected to win 67-70 seats in Awadh, 14-17 in Bundelkhand, 37-39 in Western & Brij region, 38-42 in Poorvanchal, 46-49 in Paschim Pradesh, and 30-33 in Rohilkhand. 

SP+ is expected to emerge as a runner-up by securing 120-130 seats with a 33.00% vote share. Predictions suggest that it would be a tough task for BSP and INC to keep their ground in the election battlefield up against BJP & SP. While BSP is expected to get 13-16 seats with a 13.40% vote share, INC is expected to secure only 4-5 seats with a 9.90% vote share. Others are expected to get 3-4 seats with a 1% vote share. 

Next CM face 

43.50% of the respondents want to see Yogi Adityanath retain his chief ministerial candidature in 2022. The survey reveals that Yogi Adityanath is popular amongst female (49.80%) respondents in comparison to male (42.70%) respondents, in age bracket over 56 years (55.50%) compared to rest, amongst Upper Caste Hindus (65%), and in Western & Brij regions (46.80%) than others. 

SP’s Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as a strong contender against Yogi Adityanath. 42.10% of the respondents opted for Akhilesh as their choice for Chief Minister in 2022. Votes of the remaining respondents split amongst Mayawati (7.10%), Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (3.80%), and others (3.80%). 

Key Voting Issues

When asked about the biggest voting issue ahead of 2022, the majority of the respondents said jobs (43.20%), followed by crime (18.00%), infrastructure (15.00%), other issues (12.10%), caste (6.60%), and MSP (5.10%). 

43.80% of respondents said that religion is still a voting issue for them, 12.70% said to some extent; while 30.80% said it is not, and the remaining 12.70% said they can’t say/don’t know. 

BJPs biggest achievements in the last 5 years 

26.10% of respondents feel Ram Mandir is the biggest achievement of BJP in the last 5 years in UP, followed by other achievements (21.90%), highway construction (21.50%), reducing mafia raj (15.50%), vaccine rollout (11.10%) and doubling state GDP (3.90%)

 Farm Laws Repeal 

Lastly, 42.70% of the respondents believe the repeal of the farm laws will be beneficial to the BJP in UP, while 39.50% of respondents believe that it won’t. 8.80% said maybe, and 9% can’t say/don’t know. 

Latest news

Related news