What is Lok Sabha Exit Poll? What are the methods of data collection? Lok Sabha exit poll refers to a survey usually done once the voting ends. Exit poll is based on the votes polled by the voters during the course of elections. However, an exit poll, not always known to be correct, is a poll of voters taken immediately after they exit the polling stations. The trend is considered and plays an important as an indicator in the government formation.
Methods of data collection:
Institutions or private firms working for newspapers and broadcasters ask voters whom they actually voted for and assuming that they have got the correct answers, they predict the result trends. Election predictions based on exit and opinion polls have gained much attention in the past decade with television’s reach increasing in India alongside the mushrooming of digital news portals.
In a country like India, most times exit polls had predicted the verdict of an election which was incorrect. In 2004, the exit polls went wrong by predicting BJP-led NDA coalition’s victory, while in 2009, the exit poll masters predicted another failure where they underestimated Congress-led UPA’s seat share.
In 2014, exit polls showed the NDA winning a majority. Even the channels predicted 291 seats for the BJP and 340 for the NDA. Meanwhile, soon after the results were announced, the BJP got 282 seats and the NDA won 336 in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
The Election Commission has barred both print and electronic media houses from publishing any article or programme related to the dissemination of results of exit polls before the last vote is cast and sealed in an Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).
The stage is now set for another prediction for Lok Sabha elections 2019. The wait will be over on Sunday evening. This year, exit polls can only be telecast on the evening of May 19, after the phase 7 of Lok Sabha election 2019 gets over.