Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Polstrat-NewsX Pre-Poll Survey: Who’s winning Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand?

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The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey has predicted that the Bhartiya Janata Party is expected to retain its stronghold in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming assembly elections. Of the 403 seats, BJP+ is expected to win 235-245 seats with a 42.70% vote share.

Region-wise, the party is expected to win 67-70 seats in Awadh, 14-17 in Bundelkhand, 37-39 in Western & Brij region, 38-42 in Poorvanchal, 46-49 in Paschim Pradesh, and 30-33 in Rohilkhand.

SP+ is expected to emerge as a runner-up by securing 120-130 seats with a 33.00% vote share. Predictions suggest that it would be a tough task for BSP and INC to keep their ground in the election battlefield up against BJP & SP. While BSP is expected to get 13-16 seats with a 13.40% vote share, INC is expected to secure only 4-5 seats with a 9.90% vote share. Others are expected to get 3-4 seats with a 1% vote share.

43.50% of the respondents want to see Yogi Adityanath retain his chief ministerial candidature in 2022. The survey reveals that Yogi Adityanath is popular amongst female (49.80%) respondents in comparison to male (42.70%) respondents, in age bracket over 56 years (55.50%) compared to rest, amongst Upper Caste Hindus (65%), and in Western & Brij regions (46.80%) than others.

SP’s Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as a strong contender against Yogi Adityanath. 42.10% of the respondents opted for Akhilesh as their choice for Chief Minister in 2022. Votes of the remaining respondents split amongst Mayawati (7.10%), Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (3.80%), and others (3.80%).

When asked about the biggest voting issue ahead of 2022, the majority of the respondents said jobs (43.20%), followed by crime (18.00%), infrastructure (15.00%), other issues (12.10%), caste (6.60%), and MSP (5.10%).

43.80% of respondents said that religion is still a voting issue for them, 12.70% said to some extent; while 30.80% said it is not, and the remaining 12.70% said they can’t say/don’t know.

26.10% of respondents feel Ram Mandir is the biggest achievement of BJP in the last 5 years in UP, followed by other achievements (21.90%), highway construction (21.50%), reducing mafia raj (15.50%), vaccine rollout (11.10%) and doubling state GDP (3.90%)

Lastly, 42.70% of the respondents believe the repeal of the farm laws will be beneficial to the BJP in UP, while 39.50% of respondents believe that it won’t. 8.80% said maybe, and 9% can’t say/don’t know.

In Uttarakhand, The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey has predicted Bhartiya Janata Party’s sweeping victory in assembly elections 2022. Of the 70 seats, BJP is expected to win 36-41 seats with a 40-50% vote share. INC is expected to be the runner-up by winning 25-30 seats with a 34.20% vote share, and AAP is expected to secure only 2- 4 seats with a 10.40% vote share.

41% of the respondents want current Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami to retain the post in 2022, followed by Harish Rawat (25.00%), Col. Kothiyal (14.70%), Others (13.40%), and Trivendra Singh Rawat (5.70%). Pushkar Singh Dhami is more popular among males (42.00%) than females (40.00%), in the above-56 age bracket (49.90%), and among Upper Caste Hindus (49.00%).

Among various issues, 44.70% of the respondents said jobs are the biggest voting issue, as compared to government stability (19.70%), other issues (13.40%), infrastructure (11.40%), flood management (6.70%), and Devasthanam board (4.10%).

When asked if the Devasthanam board should be repealed, 35.70% of the respondents said yes, 22.60% said no, 11.80% said maybe, and 29.90% said maybe.

The majority of the respondents (53.50%) said that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made an impact in their area while 6.90% of the respondents said maybe. Only 35.40% of the respondents said AAP has not made an impact, while 4.20% said that they couldn’t say.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as the favorite national leader for 55.20% of the respondents. The remaining respondents chose Rahul Gandhi (15.20%), Mamata Banerjee (5.60%), Arvind Kejriwal (18.20%), and others (5.80%).

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