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For weeks, the asteroid 2024 YR4 has been the subject of alarming headlines, with concerns that it could collide with Earth in December 2032. Dubbed a “city killer,” this space rock kept scientists on edge as its risk level changed. However, there is now a major sigh of relief—NASA has significantly lowered the probability of impact, easing fears among experts and the public alike.
NASA Updates Impact Probability
On February 19, NASA announced on X (formerly Twitter) that new orbital data had dramatically reduced the asteroid’s impact risk. Just a day earlier, calculations had suggested a 1 in 32 chance (or 3.1% probability) of a collision, making 2024 YR4 the most concerning asteroid ever recorded on NASA’s Sentry Risk Table for near-Earth objects. However, with more precise tracking, the probability has now dropped to 1 in 67 (1.5%), and experts expect it to decrease even further as new observations continue.
European Space Agency Confirms Lower Risk
The European Space Agency (ESA) also followed with a similar update, adjusting its own impact estimate to 1.38% (1 in 73). Scientists had anticipated this change, and many now believe the chance of an impact will eventually drop to zero.
Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s Planetary Defence Office, explained that this trend was expected. He noted that the asteroid’s “uncertainty region”—the possible area where it could hit—has been shifting away from Earth, reducing the likelihood of a direct impact. However, more data is still needed, and researchers are eager to conduct further studies.
James Webb Space Telescope to Examine Asteroid
To refine their understanding of 2024 YR4’s path, scientists have scheduled observations using the James Webb Space Telescope next month. These additional studies could provide even more precise calculations and further confirm that Earth is not at risk.
Potential Impact on the Moon
While the asteroid appears to be moving away from Earth, there is still a 0.8% chance that it could strike the Moon. With an estimated width of 40 to 90 meters, 2024 YR4 is not large enough to cause a global catastrophe, but if it were to hit a populated area, the destruction would be severe—potentially flattening an entire city.
NASA has reassured the public that each new observation improves their understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory. The agency remains committed to monitoring the situation and will continue to provide updates as more data becomes available.
