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As Canadians prepare to head to the polls on Monday, US President Donald Trump’s rhetorics have seemingly taken the centre stage in an election that has seen a dramatic shift in momentum toward the ruling Liberal Party, The Associated Press reported.
Trump’s escalating trade war and provocative threats to make Canada the “51st state” have stirred a surge of nationalism across the country, allowing the Liberals — once trailing — to reframe the campaign narrative and gain ground in opinion polls.
“Trump is the campaign,” former Quebec Premier Jean Charest said, according to AP. “The ballot question is who is the person we are going to choose to face Trump. Everything has changed.”
Foreign policy has not had this level of influence on a Canadian election since 1988, when free trade with the United States dominated the political discourse, the report said.
According to the AP report, Prime Minister Mark Carney, who assumed leadership of the Liberal Party on March 14 following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, is now leading in polls heading into election day — a remarkable turnaround for a party that appeared to be headed for a defeat just months ago.
“We are in a crisis. President Trump is threatening Canada, he’s threatening our companies, he’s threatening our workers, he’s threatening the savings of our retirees,” Carney said Tuesday, according to AP. “This threat is not only an economic threat, it is an existential threat.”
Meanwhile, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, once seen as the clear favourite to become the next prime minister, has seen his lead erode as Trump’s apparent interventions roil Canadian politics.
Charest, a moderate who governed Quebec from 2003 to 2012, warned that Trump’s behaviour could end up harming his ideological allies abroad. “At what point are the Trump folks going to think this thing through and measure what are the consequences?” he reportedly asked. “In the White House, they should sit down and think about the effect Trump has in the world.”
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Carney has accused Trump of damaging the historically close ties between Canada and the United States. Meanwhile, Poilievre, who has been described as “very much in sync” with the “new direction in America” by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, has called for Canadians to reject what he characterised as “a lost Liberal decade”, the report said.
Both Carney and Poilievre have vowed, if elected, to pursue new negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement to end the uncertainty Trump’s tariffs have generated for the economies.
Carney has stressed a need to diversify Canada’s trade relationships and is reportredly reviewing the country’s planned purchase of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, suggesting there may be alternative options “given the changing environment.” Notably, Carney chose to visit Paris and London, and not Washington — for his first official trips as prime minister.
According to the report, almost 80% of Canadian exports still flow south of the border to the US.
“Let’s be honest, if Canada does a remarkable job — a remarkable job — of diversifying trade, what is that going to look like?” AP quoted former Foreign Minister John Baird as saying. “Let’s keep our eye on the main ball. They are 78% of our customers so we need to tackle that challenge.”
According to polling by Nanos Research, the Liberals are leading nationally by three percentage points and holding a five-point lead in Ontario, the province that carries 122 of Parliament’s 343 seats, AP reported.
The final outcome of Monday’s election will not only determine Canada’s domestic future — it may also redefine its relationship with the US under Trump’s leadership.
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