Child deaths in England have increased to new levels following a temporary decline during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a study published in the PLOS Medicine journal. The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Bristol using the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD), reveals a concerning trend in child mortality rates.

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The study highlights that between April 2020 and March 2021, during the height of lockdowns, children were less likely to die than at any other time before or since. There were 377 fewer deaths than expected based on the previous 12-month period. This decline was attributed to reduced exposure to infectious diseases and enhanced health-related behaviors such as increased hand washing.

However, the number of child deaths in the following year, 2021-22, returned to pre-pandemic levels. Alarmingly, in 2022-23, there were 258 more deaths than expected from the 2020-21 period. The increase in child mortality is now above pre-pandemic levels, raising significant concerns among health professionals.

The study also found that the relative rate of dying for children from non-white backgrounds, compared with white children, is now higher than before or during the pandemic. This increase could be due to several factors, including the return of circulating diseases to pre-pandemic levels, the end of enhanced health-related behaviors, and the withdrawal of state-based enhanced social support that benefited the most socially vulnerable families.

Karen Luyt, program director for the NCMD and professor of neonatal medicine at the University of Bristol, stated, “These stark findings demonstrate that, for most children and most causes of death, the reduction in mortality that was seen during the pandemic was only temporary.”

The study confirms that deaths were higher in the years following the lockdown period. One category, deaths from birth events, showed an increase during the lockdowns but returned to pre-pandemic levels afterward. Other categories, including deaths from substance misuse, infections, sudden unexpected death in childhood, and underlying conditions, all saw an increase post-pandemic.

Additionally, there was a rise in deaths caused by “trauma,” which included road traffic accidents and drownings, although it did not exclusively cover non-accidental injury.

Ethnicity data from the study shows that in the most recent year, 61% of child deaths accounted for white children, a decline from the share in 2019-20. In contrast, 20% of child deaths were accounted for by Asian children, and 9.7% by Black or Black British children, both of which were increases.

Researchers identified all the children in England who died between April 2019 and March 2023 and calculated the annual rate of death for each group of children and cause of death. Using a mathematical model, the research team tested whether the rate of death was increasing or decreasing over the four years.

Karen Luyt emphasized the importance of addressing these trends, stating, “The NCMD’s unique data also tells us that existing inequalities have widened, with outcomes deteriorating for children from poor and non-white backgrounds compared with their peers. But it also shows that change is possible; more must be done to change these trends in the long term, and improve and save children’s lives.”

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