Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful ally and first line of defense against Israel since the 1980s, has remained notably quiet during Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian targets.
Hezbollah’s Silence Amid Conflict
Formed with Iranian support as a guerrilla force fighting Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah grew into a powerful regional actor—once boasting some 150,000 rockets and 100,000 fighters, according to a report published by The Associated Press. After launching rockets into Israel following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack, Hezbollah faced devastating Israeli airstrikes and losses, including the death of top leaders and destruction of much of its arsenal.
Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem has condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran and mourned Iranian casualties, but has not signalled any intent to retaliate militarily. Analysts cited by the AP have attributed Hezbollah’s caution to heavy damage sustained last year and the loss of a critical Iranian weapons supply route following the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad in late 2023. “Hezbollah has been degraded on the strategic level while cut off from supply chains in Syria,” Andreas Krieg, military analyst and associate professor at King’s College London, told AP.
Iraqi Militias: Political Calculations or Caution?
Similarly, Iran-backed militias in Iraq, including Kataib Hezbollah, have stayed mostly silent despite Israel allegedly using Iraqi airspace to launch attacks on Iran.
Kataib Hezbollah condemned Israel’s alleged violation of Iraqi airspace, calling it “deeply regrettable,” and urged the Iraqi government to expel foreign forces (a veiled reference to US troops). However, they issued no threat of force or plans for retaliation, per the AP report.
Renad Mansour, a senior fellow at Chatham House, told the publication, “Things in Iraq are good for them right now, they’re connected to the state — they’re benefitting politically, economically… And also they’ve seen what’s happened to Iran, to Hezbollah and they’re concerned that Israel will turn on them as well.”
Unlike Hezbollah’s partly non-state status, Iraqi militias are integrated into official state defense structures and prefer to avoid dragging Iraq into a broader regional war, the report said.
The ‘Axis of Resistance’ Fractured
The “Axis of Resistance”—the network of Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Yemen’s Houthis, and Hamas—was once perceived as a tightly coordinated front against Israel.
However, the group’s cohesion has frayed due to political upheavals, military losses, and shifting priorities. Hezbollah members reportedly feel “they were sacrificed for Iran’s greater regional interests” and now want to focus more on “Lebanon-centric” concerns rather than defending Iran, Krieg further told the agency.
Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, cautioned against ruling out future involvement, reportedly saying, “This depends on political and field developments. Anything is possible.”
Meanwhile, Andreas Krieg told AP that the Iraqi militias and Houthis lack the strategic deep-strike capability Hezbollah once possessed.
Houthis: The New Active Front?
Of all the Iran allies, Yemen’s Houthis remain actively engaged, regularly firing missiles at Israel and vessels in the Red Sea, a key global trade route.
Krieg described the Houthis as the likely “new hub in the Axis of Resistance,” while also noting that their geographical distance and limited capabilities restrict their impact beyond sporadic missile attacks, as reported by the AP.
From a Unified Front to a Loose Network?
The idea of an “Axis of Resistance” fully controlled by Iran appears increasingly outdated. Instead, the alliance seems to be functioning more like a loose network where member groups are primarily concerned with their own survival amid complex domestic and regional pressures. “It is not really an axis anymore as (much as) a loose network where everyone largely is occupied with its own survival,” Krieg further told the agency.
