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Scientists have issued a stark warning about Alaska’s Mount Spurr, stating that the massive 11,000-foot volcano has a 50-50 chance of erupting in the near future. Located 77 miles west of Anchorage—Alaska’s largest city with a population of nearly 300,000—the volcano has been experiencing an unusual surge in seismic activity over the past 10 months.
Since April 2024, the frequency of earthquakes at Mount Spurr has risen dramatically, increasing from an average of 30 per week to 125 per week by early October. Experts at the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) attribute this escalation to new magma churning beneath the volcano—an indicator that an eruption may be imminent.
Potential Hazards of an Eruption
If Mount Spurr erupts, it could unleash explosive plumes of ash, pyroclastic flows—fast-moving avalanches of hot gas, ash, and rock that can reach speeds of over 200 mph—and destructive mudslides known as lahars. Fortunately, there are no communities within the direct path of these hazards. However, the ash fallout could pose a significant health risk, causing respiratory issues and releasing toxins associated with cancer.
The last time Mount Spurr erupted was in 1992, following a similar pattern of heightened seismic activity over 10 months. That eruption, which originated from the volcano’s Crater Peak side vent, sent an ash column soaring 65,000 feet into the sky. Anchorage experienced about a quarter-inch of ash accumulation, forcing residents to stay indoors or wear protective masks when venturing outside.
Increased Seismic Activity and Chances of Volcano Eruption
The ash also disrupted air travel, as its sharp, angular particles posed a severe threat to jet engines. Anchorage and other nearby airports were forced to close until the skies cleared. Today, the Anchorage airport sees even more air traffic, making another major eruption a significant disruption risk.
Haney and his team have been closely monitoring the increasing seismic activity. “It’s had a higher-than-normal number of earthquakes for many months,” he said. “But over the past month, that itself increased, and also the location of the earthquakes changed.”
Initially, the seismic activity was centered near the summit, but it has since migrated two miles downslope to the Crater Peak side vent—an indicator that an eruption similar to the one in 1992 could be on the horizon. However, scientists caution that these earthquakes do not guarantee an eruption.
Volcano Eruption or False Alarm?
There have been past instances where heightened seismic activity did not lead to an eruption. In 2004 and 2005, Mount Spurr experienced increased earthquakes, only to settle down by 2006 without any volcanic activity.
While the possibility remains that Mount Spurr could erupt from its summit vent—a scenario that would likely produce explosive lava flows and lahars—AVO considers this the least likely outcome. The migration of seismic activity from the summit to Crater Peak strongly suggests that if an eruption does occur, it will originate from the side vent, similar to 1992.
At present, AVO experts believe the two most likely outcomes are either no eruption or an eruption from the Crater Peak side vent, with both scenarios being equally probable.
Signs of an Imminent Eruption
To determine whether an eruption is imminent, scientists are monitoring Mount Spurr for additional changes in seismic patterns and other indicators.
“We expect to see additional changes to monitoring data prior to an eruption if one were to occur as magma moves closer to the surface,” AVO experts stated. “This would include further increases in the number of earthquakes, onset of sustained seismic tremor, increased gas emissions, changes in surface deformation, and melting of snow and ice.”
In 1992, such warning signs appeared approximately three weeks before the eruption. With Mount Spurr currently under watch, researchers are prepared to respond swiftly should these signals emerge again.
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