With tensions rising amid the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, political strategist George Birnbaum, who served as a key aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, shared his insights in an exclusive conversation with NewsX’s Priya Sahgal on Thursday. With decades of experience in political strategy, Birnbaum shed light on the Israeli leadership’s mindset and potential implications of the conflict for the broader region. Excerpts:
On Netanyahu’s Focus of Averting ‘An Existential Threat’
Birnbaum, whose expertise has guided Netanyahu through pivotal moments, said the Israeli Prime Minister’s current priority is clear: to eliminate an existential threat not just to Israel, but to the world. “As of today, the Prime Minister is really focused on one thing and one thing only — eliminating an existential threat,” Birnbaum told NewsX.
“He’s always believed that the Prime Minister of Israel has a responsibility to ensure that what happened in the 1940s to the Jewish people under Nazi Germany never happens again.”
Birnbaum went further to explain Netanyahu’s perspective on preventing global conflict, saying, “I believe firmly that the Prime Minister and his cabinet and most of the Jewish people around the world believe that what Israel is doing now will be looked at as having prevented World War III.”
On the Timing of the Israeli Military Action
When asked about the timing of Israel’s military action, Birnbaum pointed to Iran’s advancing uranium enrichment program as the primary driver.
“The timing is clearly linked to the uranium enrichment program,” he explained.
“Iran was getting very close to reaching that critical mass where they could build nuclear warheads. The choice was to either stop them now or risk them having missiles capable of reaching Europe and the US—not just Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.”
Underlining the gravitas of such decisions, Birnbaum further said, “These types of decisions where you’re putting not just soldiers’ lives in harm’s way but civilians’ lives at risk as well are not easy decisions. It is a decision that only one person makes. He has to live with it. And it’s a very difficult one.”
“It’s one that prime ministers such as Prime Minister Netanyahu and your Prime Minister Narendra Modi make almost on a daily basis,” he stressed while drawing parallels between the two leaders’ styles of governance.
“This is at a much greater scale than a small military operation. It is a life-and-death decision that the prime minister had to take and did not take easily.”
On ‘The Endgame’ of Preventing Iran’s Nuclear Weaponisation
Speaking on the objectives of Israel’s actions, Birnbaum suggested that the endgame is to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Asserting that Iran’s nuclear ambitions extend beyond Israel, he said, “Iran is not just a threat to Israel. They’ve made it clear they want to harm America and other Western democracies, using proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. If Iran gets a nuclear weapon, its proxies would have access to the same.”
Responding to a question on the potential regime change in Iran, Birnbaum said the focus remains on preventing the nuclear threat.
“Regime change would be a wonderful benefit, but the endgame is about eliminating Iran’s weaponised nuclear program.”
On US-Iran Nuclear Talks
Speaking on the timing of the Israeli attack on Iran that reportedly raised concerns, especially given the strikes happened amid ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran over the nuclear issue, Birnbaum suggested that Israeli strike wasn’t a unilateral move.
“Israel and the US share intelligence daily,” Birnbaum told NewsX, adding that US President Donald Trump was well aware of Iran’s tactics.
“Trump recognised that the Iranians were negotiating just to buy time. Every day they delayed negotiations was another day they could enrich more uranium.”
On the Regime Change in Iran
When asked about the potential consequences of a successful strike against Iranian leadership, particularly the Ayatollahs, Birnbaum detailed the complexity of what would come next. “The best-case scenario would be a return to a more liberal democracy, possibly even a restoration of some form of monarchy like the Shah,” Birnbaum suggested.
“If you look at what Iran was like in the 1960s and 1970s, it was a haven for education and for culture. I think that’s what everyone would like to see: a return to that type of Iran where the Iranian people are free to pursue their dreams, where women can can dress freely, where people can express themselves really and where literature and arts and culture can thrive as opposed to being stymied and stifled by Islamic fundamentalists.”
He, however, stressed that regime change is not what some see as a “fix”. “It’s not about forcing a specific form of government. It’s about letting the Iranian people choose their path,” Birnbaum insisted, while suggesting that if given the chance, most Iranians would not choose Islamic fundamentalism as their future.
On the US-Israel Relations
In discussing US-Israeli relations, Birnbaum reflected on the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump and noted that while the two leaders share a mutual understanding, each of them has to make decisions based on their respective nations’ interests.
Highlighting that the US and Israeli interests align “99 percent of the time”, Birnbaum said, “They know each other very well. When you say “listen,” they will listen to a point at the end of the day. The Israeli prime minister has to operate with the Israeli citizens best interests in mind. And the American president has to operate with the American people’s best interests in mind.”
“Most of the time, those two things converge. When they do diverge, then the two sides have to understand and respect each other and say, okay, you have to do what you have to do for your people. I have to do what I have to do for my people.”
On the Implications of the Israel-Iran Conflict in the Middle East
Birnbaum also touched on the challenges of introducing democracy in the Middle East, and while he acknowledged the ideal of a democratic Iran, he warned that American-style democracy may not be the solution for every country.
“The idea that democracy or the idea of American democracy is the absolute solution to the problem is a wrong idea to pursue,” he stated.
Birnbaum, who believes that the Iranian people deserve to choose their future and the path that they go on, further told NewsX, “I think most of the Iranians would not choose the path of Islamic fundamentalism as the way to pursue their dreams and their goals. I am not suggesting that by instantly bringing democracy to Iran, you will solve all of Iran’s problems, but by allowing the people to have self-determination as to what the course of their future is, then I think you start on a path that will allow Iranians and, quite frankly, the region to live in a way that they haven’t for many, many decades.”
WATCH THE FULL INTERVIEW HERE:
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