2022 Exit Polls Result: Who Takes Over Himachal Pradesh?

5 December, 2022 | Pranay Lad

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Exit polls are conducted by gathering input from voters as they leave the polling booth.

Pollsters have observed a lot of fluctuation in their predictions of the mandate, ranging from being dead to being completely at odds with the final result. Exit polls are conducted by gathering input from voters as they leave the polling booth. This differs from opinion surveys that measure public sentiment prior to an election.

While all may be lost for the Congress in Gujarat, the situation seems much better for the grand old party in Himachal where it has at least been able to give tough competition to the BJP. The neck & neck fight shows how the local leadership can give a decent fight if given a free hand without interference from the top. While Rahul Gandhi was busy with his Bharat Jodo yatra, credit has to be given to local Congress leaders like Pratibha Singh, the wife of the late Virbhadra Singh, and others who picked up pertinent local issues to take on the Modi juggernaut.

It’s clear that when left to the local leadership, Congress still seems to be doing better but it’s the national leadership that seems to be their Achilles’ heel. It’s also interesting to note that despite the open factionalism witnessed in the grand old party, they have still been able to put up a decent show. The exit polls also show how Congress got the logic right by picking up local issues like the old pension scheme, migration & employment instead of simply attacking the central leadership of the BJP. For the BJP the exit polls certainly show while the personal charisma of PM Modi can woo the electorate but at the end of the day anti-incumbency can set in if voters aren’t fully satisfied by the performance of the local leaders.

Though, credit has to be given to the BJP for managing to keep a difficult state like Himachal which has a reputation for changing governments every five years. The AAP can also learn a lesson or two here as Himachal certainly proved to be a tough hill for Kejriwal to climb. End of the day there’s little doubt that the AAP has mastered the game of garnering headlines & creating online buzz but what it needs is real cadre strength on the ground if it wants to replicate the victory of neighboring Punjab & Delhi.

In the assembly election, 75.6 per cent of eligible voters turned out in Himachal Pradesh, setting a record. The state chose a one-phase voting process. 75.57% of eligible voters ultimately participated in the 2017 assembly elections. While 76.4 per cent of all female voters used their right to vote, just 72.4 per cent of male voters did the same. The proportion for the third gender was 68.4%. There were 27.88 lakh men and 27.36 lakh women in the electorate overall. There were 38 self-registered third-gender voters.

If exit polls are to be believed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP will win both Gujarat assembly elections. An aggregate of exit polls says the BJP will win 40 of Himachal Pradesh’s 68 seats, four less than they attained in the 2017 polls. The Congress, according to the poll of exit polls, will manage to get around 34 seats this time in Gujarat, an increase of 13 seats since 2017, with Aam Aadmi Party being in the race this time, the party didn’t have any effect on the voter bank as the party managed to attain only two seats.

The state election department focused heavily on 11 seats with low voter turnout in the 2017 elections for the assembly, according to the statement.

The voter participation finally increased in nine of these constituencies—Dharampur, Jaisinghpur, Shimla, Baijnath, Bhoranj, Solan, Kasumpati, Sarkaghat, Jaswan Pragpur, Hamirpur, and Badsar—by up to seven per cent out of the 11 seats.

The Dharampur seat had a 6.93 percentage point gain from 63.6 per cent in 2017 to 70.54 per cent in the just-completed election. However, the proportion decreased significantly in Shimla and Baijnath, from 63.93% in 2017 to 62.53% and from 64.92% in 2017 to 63.46%, respectively.

The votes share is expected as:

BJP: 32-40 = 45-48%
CONGRESS: 27-34 = 42-44%
AAP: 01-02 = 07-11%
OTHERS: 0 = 01-02%

While exclusively talking to NewsX, the BJP spokesperson, Shivam Chabbra, elucidated that Himachal Pradesh is a very interesting state to look out for, and the voters will repeat the fate of Uttarakhand for Himachal Pradesh.

AAP spokesperson Siddharth Sharma stated that the politics of the Aam Aadmi Party is a bit of disruptive politics in Indian politics where we don’t believe in playing on emotions rather we believe in delivering our promises and that is what the population of Himachal Pradesh wants now.

Pooja Tripathi, the spokesperson of Congress, reiterated that the BJP has given the nation nothing but inflation and hollow promises whereas, when it comes to Congress, we have always delivered for the people and by the people.