Assam Exit Poll 2026 Results Live Updates: BJP All Set For Hat-Trick, Himanta Biswa Sarma Led NDA Predicted To Sweep 2026 Assembly Elections

With most of the pollsters predicting a big win for BJP in Assam, the focus now shifts to the result day. Votes will be counted on May 4 and on the same day results will be decared.

That is all we have from the Assam Exit Polls 2026 live coverage. See you on the counting day on May 4 with fresh coverage on NewsX. 

People’s Insight has predicted 88 to 96 seats for the BJP+ alliance, while projecting 30 to 34 seats for the Congress+ bloc.

Multiple exit polls for the Assam Assembly elections indicate a decisive victory for the BJP-led alliance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Most agencies have projected a landslide win for the ruling coalition, while the Congress-led alliance is expected to trail significantly.

According to Axis My India, the BJP+ alliance is projected to secure between 88 and 100 seats, suggesting a near clean sweep in the 126-member Assembly. In contrast, the Congress+ alliance is estimated to win between 24 and 36 seats.

Similarly, People’s Insight has forecast 88 to 96 seats for the BJP+ alliance, while projecting 30 to 34 seats for the Congress+ bloc.

Himanta Biswa Sarma voiced strong confidence in the electoral performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party, stating that the party is poised for significant gains following the first phase of voting.
Speaking at a press conference on April 25, he asserted that the BJP has already built substantial momentum, even claiming that the party secured 110 seats. Sarma further said the BJP is on course to win 100 seats in Assam and 200 seats in West Bengal, attributing the optimism to what he described as a shift in public sentiment in favour of the party.

Assam recently conducted delimitation exercise, which has reshaped the constituency boundaries in the state. A number of seats have experienced notable shifts in voter composition. Past voting trends may not hold the same relevance this time, adding an element of uncertainty to outcome to exit polls.

The 2016 Assembly elections proved to be a watershed moment in Assam’s political landscape, bringing an end to the Congress party’s uninterrupted 15-year tenure. The BJP, which had earlier found it difficult to gain ground in the state, rose to prominence and formed the government for the first time.

Assam’s varied regional dynamics continue to play a decisive role in determining electoral results, and the current election reflects this trend. Differences in voter turnout across key regions, central Assam, lower Assam, upper Assam, and the Bodoland Territorial Region are expected to have a significant bearing on the final outcome. While certain pockets have witnessed a notable surge in voter participation, others have recorded only modest shifts, making the overall contest more complex.

In the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 60 seats, while the Congress secured 29. The BJP also led in overall vote share with 33.2%, compared to Congress’s 29.7%. Among other parties, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) received 7.9% of the vote, the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) garnered 3.4%, and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) accounted for 9.3% of the total vote share.

Assam Exit Polls 2026 Live: Assam registered its highest-ever voter turnout at 85.8%. While a high turnout does not necessarily signal anti-incumbency, the ruling party may gain from its well-established grassroots network. At the same time, increased opposition activity in certain regions could make the electoral battle more competitive.

The Assam Election results, the spotlight is on the intense face-off between Himanta Biswa Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi. BJP is aiming to in a majority on its own. The campaign has been shaped by emotionally charged issues, including identity politics and the Zubeen Garg death probe. BJP has been trying to strengthen its position through governance initiatives, welfare programmes, and its “jati, mati, bheti” narrative. Meanwhile, the Congress is working to recalibrate its strategy by promoting new leadership and building alliances to capitalise on anti-incumbency and evolving social coalitions.

Exit polls are typically made public 30 minutes after voting concludes in the final phase of an election. For the ongoing Assembly polls, exit polls are expected to begin emerging after 6:30 pm, in line with guidelines issued by the Election Commission of India.

These restrictions are designed to prevent any influence on voters while polling is still in progress. The rule is enforced under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. 

Counting of votes for the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry will be conducted on May 4, with results for all five regions scheduled to be declared the same day.

Assam witnessed a significant increase in voter participation during the 2026 Assembly elections, with turnout reaching 85.9% in the figures released by the Election Commission of India. This is the highest-ever turnout in the state, exceeding 84.67% recorded in 2016 and 82.04% in 2021.