Sunday, December 3, 2023

Polstrat-NewsX Pre-Poll Survey 2: Who’s winning Punjab?

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Seat Share & Vote Share Predictions

In the run-up to Punjab assembly elections, the Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey predicts Congress is unlikely to retain power in the next term. Of the 117 seats, Congress is predicted to win 42-45 seats with a 37.2% vote share. The Aam Aadmi Party, seeking to solidify its position in Punjab, is predicted to defeat Congress by a considerable margin with 52-55 seats with a 39.7% vote share. SAD is predicted to get 17-20 seats with a 16.6% vote share, while BJP is predicted to get only 0-2 seats with a 2.7% vote share.

Favourite CM Candidate

The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey finds that 38.92% of the total respondents want to see AAP’s Bhagwant Mann become the next Chief Minister. Current CM Charanjit Singh Channi (Cong) and SAD’s Sukhbir Singh Badal are tied for second place in this regard, with a meagre difference. Channi was favoured by 20.78% of the respondents, whereas Sukhbir Badal had 20.34% of respondents supporting his candidature for the post.

Major Issues

The survey tried to identify the issues that will be the major deciding factors when the state goes to the polls. Punjab is heavily divided on some of the major issues in the state. Even though employment opportunities emerged as the single largest issue among voters, the issue is the top priority for only 32.5% of the respondents. The next two major issues were development (19.8%) and sacrilege (13.9%). MSP for agricultural produce, which was a key demand during the anti-farm law protests, will be a significant issue for 10.4% of the voters.

People’s Concerns

A majority of the respondents (31.63%) agreed that polarisation between Sikh and Hindu communities is a major concern in the state. According to 22.2% of the respondents, identity politics is yet another issue of concern for the state’s current political scenario. The issue of Khalistani separatists operating from foreign lands appeared to be a top concern for just 16.36% of the total respondents. Meanwhile, a small group of respondents (6.07%) shared the concern on mob lynchings in Punjab.

Impact by AAP

A whopping 61.07% of respondents agreed that the Aam Aadmi Party has been successful in making inroads into the state. Of the total respondents, 41.5% believe that the party is now a significant player in state politics. On the other hand, 27.54% of the total respondents believe that the party has not made any impact in Punjab politics.

PM Security Breach

45.68% of the respondents strongly disagreed with blaming the state authorities for the breach in PM Narendra Modi’s security during his Ferozepur visit. However, 36.96% of the respondents blamed the state administration for the security lapse, and another 7.88% said so with less confidence.

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