Bihar Exit Polls: What Happened In 2015 And 2020, What to Expect In 2025

Voting for the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections will end on Tuesday, November 11. As soon as the voting ends, the attention will turn to the exit polls. While exit polls give a hint at who is winning, they are not completely accurate. In the past, Bihar’s exit polls have seen mixed accuracy, making the current projections a subject of intense scrutiny.

2020 Bihar Elections Exit Polls

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls largely predicted a narrow victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. An average of 11 exit polls projected the alliance to win 125 seats, just above the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly, while the JD(U)-led NDA was forecast at 108 seats.

However, the actual results contradicted these projections. The NDA managed a slim majority with 125 seats, compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 seats.

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That election saw the undivided LJP contest independently, while the Mukesh Sahani-led VIP, now aligned with the Opposition, had been part of the NDA.

Overall, the exit polls underestimated the NDA by 17 seats and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 15 seats.

Among the 11 exit polls, Patriotic Voter, P-Marq, and ABP News-CVoter were closest to predicting an NDA majority. In contrast, News18-Today’s Chanakya was the most off-target, forecasting only 55 seats for the NDA and 180 for the Mahagathbandhan.

Three agencies – Republic-Jan Ki Baat, India Today/Aaj Tak-Axis My India, and News18-Today’s Chanakya – had predicted an outright Mahagathbandhan majority, highlighting the varying methodologies and assumptions among pollsters.

2015 Bihar Elections Exit Polls

The 2015 elections presented a different scenario. The RJD and JD(U) joined forces under the Mahagathbandhan banner, alongside the Congress, to challenge the NDA. At that time, the NDA, led by the BJP, included the undivided LJP, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (now Rashtriya Lok Morcha, led by Upendra Kushwaha), and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).

An average of six exit polls had predicted a very narrow Mahagathbandhan win, just 1 seat above the majority, while assigning 114 seats to the NDA.

Contrary to these predictions, the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine achieved a landslide victory, winning 178 seats and comfortably securing an outright majority. The NDA, on the other hand, was limited to 58 seats.

Among the six polling agencies, three correctly predicted a Mahagathbandhan victory, while two had backed the NDA, and one anticipated a hung Assembly. On average, the polls underestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 55 seats and overestimated the NDA by 56 seats.

The CNN IBN-Axis My India poll came closest to the actual outcome, projecting 176 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 64 seats for the NDA.

Despite this resounding victory engineered by erstwhile rivals, the alliance collapsed in 2017 when Nitish Kumar rejoined the NDA to form a new government with the BJP.

2025 Bihar Elections

With the second phase of polling concluded, exit polls will now shape public perception of the electoral trend. Historical evidence from 2015 and 2020 suggests that while exit polls offer a snapshot of voter sentiment, their accuracy can vary significantly, especially in a politically complex state like Bihar.

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