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As the new trading week kicks off on Monday, all eyes in the Indian stock markets are glued to a few big-ticket triggers: the first-quarter earnings season, developments in U.S. tariff talks, key economic data releases, and global cues. It’s going to be a packed week, and if you’re an investor, expect some stock-specific fireworks—even if the broader markets play it cool. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, puts it simply: “Two key factors will drive the next big move—earnings and tariffs.” In other words, how companies talk about their margins and demand trends will matter as much as whether global trade tensions ease up. Last week already showed signs of investor hesitation. The Nifty barely moved for four days, stuck in a narrow 200-point range—until Friday’s sharp drop broke the calm. That dip? It’s a clear sign that market sentiment is starting to wobble as the big numbers and global headlines start rolling in.
Shah noted that “the market may remain range-bound, with stock-specific action dominating the trend. A breakout from this phase will likely be triggered by either strong earnings surprises or positive developments on the global trade front.” On Friday, the Nifty index sharply fell, slipping below its consolidation zone and the crucial 20-day EMA, which has begun to slope downward—a technical sign of emerging weakness. “The momentum indicators aren’t painting a comforting picture either,” Shah added. This downturn followed a muted start to the Q1 earnings season, with TCS kicking things off. The Friday drop saw Sensex lose 689.81 points (0.83%) to close at 82,500.47, while Nifty shed 205.40 points (0.81%) to close at 25,149.85. Analysts observed growing investor anxiety tied to macro uncertainty and weak earnings visibility.
| Date | Event | Region | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 July | WPI & CPI Inflation (June) | India | RBI policy expectations |
| 15 July | CPI YoY (June) | U.S. | Global inflation sentiment |
| 16 July | PPI MoM, Industrial Production MoM | U.S. | Manufacturing & pricing trend |
| 17 July | Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims | U.S. | Labor market outlook |
| All week | Q1 Earnings Announcements | India/Global | Corporate performance impact |
Get ready for a data-heavy week—because the markets definitely are. Investors will be keeping a close watch on key macroeconomic numbers, both at home and abroad. Kicking things off on July 14, India will release its June WPI and CPI inflation data, which could offer fresh clues about where the RBI’s interest rate policy might head next. Meanwhile, across the globe, all eyes will turn to the U.S. inflation print (CPI YoY) on July 15, followed by PPI and industrial production on July 16. Then on July 17, jobless claims data out of the U.S. will give markets a read on labor market health. As the Bajaj Broking team put it, “Markets will closely track key macroeconomic data releases from both India and the United States.” These numbers matter—not just for economists, but for your portfolio. With global rate-cut chatter heating up, even a small surprise could move the needle on sentiment.
Despite global uncertainty and weakening domestic sentiment, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) showed surprising resilience. According to data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), FPIs made net purchases worth ₹5,260 crore during the past week. While this suggests a positive underlying tone, analysts remain cautious. Friday’s market decline followed a ramp-up in U.S. tariff threats, which, combined with mixed corporate earnings and global risk sentiment, weighed on indices. With global trade policy in flux and Q1 earnings rolling in, investors are now closely watching for signs of margin pressures, demand outlook, and forward guidance from corporate leaders. As volatility builds, smart investors will focus on fundamentals while keeping a keen eye on global developments and domestic data trends.
(With Inputs From ANI)
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Aishwarya is a journalism graduate with over three years of experience thriving in the buzzing corporate media world. She’s got a knack for decoding business news, tracking the twists and turns of the stock market, covering the masala of the entertainment world, and sometimes her stories come with just the right sprinkle of political commentary. She has worked with several organizations, interned at ZEE and gained professional skills at TV9 and News24, And now is learning and writing at NewsX, she’s no stranger to the newsroom hustle. Her storytelling style is fast-paced, creative, and perfectly tailored to connect with both the platform and its audience. Moto: Approaching every story from the reader’s point of view, backing up her insights with solid facts.
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