Stock market today, outlook: Bulls Back On Watch As Global Relief Rally Lifts Opening Mood
The Indian stock market is likely to begin Thursday on a positive note, buoyed by a global relief rally that has eased concerns around Greenland, proof that geopolitics can sway markets in unexpected ways. Wall Street’s sharp overnight surge and strong Asian cues have put bulls back in action, while Gift Nifty signalling a gap-up start raises the inevitable question: is this a genuine turnaround or just a morning tease?
Market Recap: What Happened on Wednesday?
The optimism follows a tense Wednesday, when Dalal Street extended its losing streak to a third session amid rising volatility, relentless foreign investor selling, and mixed messages from Q3 earnings. As a result, the Sensex slipped 270.84 points to 81,909.63, while the Nifty 50 lost 75 points to 25,157.50, slipping below the crucial 25,200 mark, leaving traders divided over whether that move was a warning signal or the setup for a fresh demand-led bounce today.
What Are The Global Clues That Will Shape The Market Today?
Gift Nifty Signals Gap-Up Opening
-
Gift Nifty traded around 25,320–25,362
-
Indicates a premium of 142–184 points over Nifty futures’ previous close
-
Signals a gap-up opening for Indian markets
Asian Markets Today
-
Asian markets traded higher following a strong overnight rally on Wall Street
-
Japan Nikkei 225: +1.07%
-
Topix: +0.79%
-
South Korea Kospi: +1.62% (breached 5,000 mark)
-
Kosdaq: +1.43%
-
Hang Seng futures: Indicated a higher opening
Wall Street Overnight Performance
-
US markets ended sharply higher as tariff concerns eased
-
Dow Jones: +588.64 points (+1.21%) at 49,077.23
-
S&P 500: +78.76 points (+1.16%) at 6,875.62
-
Nasdaq Composite: +270.50 points (+1.18%) at 23,224.83
Top US Stock Movers
-
Nvidia: +2.87%
-
AMD: +7.71%
-
Intel: +11.72%
-
United Airlines: +2.2%
-
Halliburton: +4.1%
-
Netflix: −2.2%
Japan Trade Data
-
Exports: +5.1% YoY in December (fourth straight monthly rise)
-
Imports: +5.3% YoY
-
Trade surplus: ¥105.7 billion (below market expectations)
Commodity Market Update
Gold & Silver
-
Gold: −0.8% to $4,793.96 per ounce
-
Silver: −1.3% to $91.86
-
Prices eased as geopolitical tensions cooled
Crude Oil
-
Brent crude: +0.49% to $65.24 per barrel
What Is Triggering The Stock Market Today?
Greenland Deal: The Global Plot Twist Markets Didn’t See Coming
Just as markets were preparing for the next episode of the tariff saga, President Donald Trump offered a surprising move, declaring that a framework agreement on Greenland has been achieved and that the tariffs on European allies, which were set to start from February 1, have been revoked. The consequence? Widespread relief across global markets, which had already been nervously pricing in another trade shock. This time, however, the Greenland affair was not over yet. The European Parliament, decidedly unfazed by constant pressure from Washington, reacted by halting negotiations on a US–EU trade agreement, adding a new layer of complexity to transatlantic relations. Trump, in turn, took a very optimistic stance on India and expressed confidence regarding the proposed India–US Bilateral Trade Agreement, while also openly commending Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a close friend and a respected global leader. To top it all, India and the EU have also agreed to forge ahead with a new security and defence partnership, leaving investors wondering: is this the beginning of smoother winds in global trade, or just a short respite in a very turbulent world?
Key Global Trade Developments
- US–EU Trade: European Parliament suspended work on a US-EU trade deal after repeated US pressure over Greenland.
- India–US Trade Talks: Trump struck an optimistic tone on the proposed India–US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a close friend and respected leader.
- India–EU Relations: India and the European Union agreed to proceed with signing a security and defence partnership.
Stock Market Prediction For Today
Sensex Technical Outlook
Sensex formed a long-legged Doji on daily charts, indicating indecision.
Key Levels (Kotak Securities):
-
Support: 81,700 | 81,500
-
Resistance: 82,600 | 83,000
-
Below 81,500, sentiment may turn negative
Additional Views:
-
Immediate support seen at 81,000–81,100
-
Heavy Call OI at 82,500 caps upside
Nifty 50 Outlook & OI Data
Technical View
-
Nifty formed a doji-type candle, reflecting high volatility
-
Trend remains weak below 25,150 (200-day EMA)
Key Levels
-
Support: 25,120 | 25,000 | 24,900
-
Resistance: 25,200 | 25,500 | 25,580 (100-DMA)
Derivatives Data
-
Highest Put OI at 25,000 (strong base)
-
Aggressive Call writing at 25,500 limits upside
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty ended sharply lower, forming a lower-high, lower-low structure.
-
Close: 58,800.30 (−603.90 points)
Key Levels
-
Support: 58,200–58,100 (100-DMA), then 57,800
-
Resistance: 59,100–59,300
Technical Indicators
-
RSI near 40, momentum weakening
-
Slipped below 50-day EMA (59,040)
-
Bearish bias unless 50-DMA is reclaimed
(With Inputs)
Also Read: