Japan Heads to Polls in Key Test for PM Shigeru Ishiba – All You Need to Know

Elections to Japan’s upper house taking place on Sunday are critical for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). With half of the 248-seat upper house set to be re-elected, opinion polls suggest that Ishiba’s ruling coalition could struggle to retain a majority. 

With the ruling party facing the political turmoil of rising inflation and discontent over immigration, here’s all you need to know about who are the key contenders, what are the top poll agendas and why Japan elections 2025 matters. 

The election could mark the beginning of a seismic political shift, with smaller opposition parties, including the right-wing Sanseito, gaining traction. 

Polls suggest the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito may not be able to secure the 50 seats needed to maintain control, which in turn has some allies worried about the political future of Ishiba, whose coalition has already suffered setbacks.

Stressing thatt each scenario requires the LDP and Komeito to make certain concessions, Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group in Japan, recently told Reuters news agency that the task “will be challenging, as any potential partner has leverage in the negotiations.”

A disappointing result could damage investor confidence in the world’s fourth-largest economy, and disrupt trade negotiations with the United States government led by President Donald Trump who has warned of more tariffs unless a trade deal is finalised by August 1. If this happens, the Japanese economy could be under further strain, especially as inflation has already hit hard, with rice prices reportedly doubling over the past year.

The Rise of Sanseito

A key element of the 2025 election is the rise of Sohei Kamiya’s populist Sanseito party, which appears to be gaining ground by tapping into some crucial concerns, including immigration, economic stagnation and what some believe is government inefficiency. 

Sanseito – a nationalist party founded in 2020 – has in recent months expanded its base, especially among the youth frustrated by stagnant wages and higher costs of living.

The party’s seemingly growing appeal, reports suggest, is largely on account of its anti-immigration rhetoric and promises to prioritise Japan’s interests above foreign influence.

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Kamiya’s speeches appear to have struck a chord with those disillusioned by the current political climate. At a recent rally in Kagoshima, Kamiya stressed that Japan must be “a society that serves the interests of the Japanese people,” as the crowd cheered in the background, according to a report published by the New York Times.

With its populist, nationalistic agenda, Sanseito has emerged as a serious challenger. Polls cited by NYT showed that the party could win between 10 and 20 seats, which in turn would significantly shake up Japan’s political landscape.

“Many of its followers are first-time voters – the disaffected who feel the mainstream parties have nothing to offer them,”  Michael Cucek, an expert in Japanese politics at Tokyo’s Temple University, told The Guardian.

What Are the Key Poll Issues? 

• The elections are taking place amid growing public dissatisfaction, particularly over economic issues like rising prices and stagnant wages.
• The recent spike in rice prices, a key staple, has particularly sparked widespread protests and even forced a cabinet minister’s resignation, as reported by The Guardian.
• Inflation, coupled with a devalued yen, has significantly impacted households, especially those in lower income bracket.

Sanseito’s campaign includes radical tax cuts, limiting immigration and halting welfare payments to non-Japanese citizens. 

The party, reports suggest, has also opposed gender equality reforms and pushed for policies that reflect traditional family values. For many voters, especially the youth, this stance offers an alternative to the governing parties.

However, the party’s rhetoric has also raised alarm about a potential rise in societal divisions. Japan has recently seen a rise in foreign residents due to labor shortages. While immigrants still make up only three percent of the country’s population, the existing scenario has drawn backlash, fuelled in part by misinformation circulating on social media, as reported by The Guardian.

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PM Ishiba’s Govt Faces Backlash

Ishiba’s government has also faced criticism for reportedly failing to address growing economic issues. The economic squeeze and increasing dissatisfaction with immigration policies have emboldened opposition parties like Sanseito. If the ruling coalition fares poorly in the election, Ishiba’s leadership would likely face tough questions.

Inistting that Sanseito’s message has “struck a chord”, especially among younger voters dissatisfied with the status quo, Jeffrey Hall, a Tokyo-based lecturer who specializes in Japan’s right-wing politics, told The Guardian that the LDP’s loss of support among conservatives would have “far-reaching consequences”.

Analysts say if the LDP performs poorly, Ishiba might have to step down, paving the way for a new leader from within the party. Still, the LDP remains the country’s largest political party, which would likely ensure that any successor comes from its ranks.

What Is at Stake?

With Japan’s political future hanging in the balance in the run up to the counting day, the emergence of Sanseito as a formidable challenger to the LDP points toward a potential shift in the political landscape expected to incline toward radical right-wing populism, similar to the trends seen in the US and Europe.