Donald Trump resignation rumors spike as Polymarket odds rise, fueled by health concerns and sudden Oval Office press conference. Photos/X.
Is Donald Trump Dead? Will Donald Trump resign? Where is US President Donald Trump? These are the few questions that have been trending on search engines and social media platforms. Now, prediction markets have made a bold prediction claiming the likelihood of POTUS resigning has sharply risen.
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-driven prediction platform, recorded an increase in the odds of Trump stepping down after the administration announced an Oval Office news conference at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday. No reason was initially given for the event.
However, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt later clarified to Newsweek that “the President will be making an exciting announcement related to the Department of Defense.”
The announcement came after days of speculation about Trump’s health, which included false claims of his death and rumors of serious medical issues. Trump attempted to dispel the speculation with a Truth Social post and has recently been pictured heading to his golf course.
The president’s last official public event was a Cabinet meeting on August 26. His absence since then fueled online rumors, with some social media users falsely asserting that he had died.
The gap in his schedule, however, may be explained by the Labor Day weekend. During his first term, Trump often took extended summer breaks at his Bedminster, New Jersey, club..
Speculation intensified further after Vice President JD Vance told USA Today that he was prepared to step into the presidency if required. The combination of his comments and Tuesday’s unusual Oval Office event added fuel to the rumors.
Polymarket, headquartered in New York, allows participants to bet on various outcomes, including political developments. During the recent U.S. election campaign, over $1 billion was wagered on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would win, according to Crypto News.
On its page titled “Will Trump resign in 2025,” the chances of resignation hovered around 3.3 to 3.5 percent throughout August.
These odds climbed above 4 percent at 8 a.m. Saturday, following online speculation about Trump’s absence and unverified health claims.
By Sunday morning, the figure reached 4.5 percent before dipping slightly below 4 percent later in the day. That evening, Trump posted on Truth Social that he “never felt better.”
The chances remained above 4 percent before surging to 5.7 percent on Monday night after reports of the Oval Office statement surfaced.
The level peaked at 10.4 percent around 1:30 a.m. Tuesday before sliding to 5.4 percent by 6 a.m. – still notably higher than in previous weeks.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt reiterated that the president’s scheduled appearance was tied to defense matters, stating, “President will be making an exciting announcement related to the Department of Defense.”
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
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