Telecom Tariffs Likely To Rise 20% In FY27: ICICI Securities

Indian telecom operators are expected to hike tariffs by around 20% in the fiscal year 2026–27 (FY27), according to a report by ICICI Securities. While the report had previously indicated the hike to take place in the second quarter of FY26, it now projects the increase will be pushed to FY27.
“We forecast subs to keep growing at 2 per cent p.a. and have assumed one large tariff hike in FY27E (approx. 20 per cent hike across categories),” the report said as per ANI.

Reliance Jio, Airtel May Get Most Shares

The report also stated that Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are projected to gain the largest share in the fixed broadband segment.
 Capital expenditure by private telecom operators may stay flat or slightly decrease, which would support strong free cash flow generation. This, in turn, could lead to better returns for shareholders through dividends or share buybacks.

The report also anticipates a 2% steady subscriber growth. It factors in just one major tariff hike in FY27 across all service categories, with no significant price changes expected after that.

Telecom Industry Performance

Additionally, the telecom industry’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR), including national long distance (NLD), is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.8% between FY25 and FY30, reaching Rs 4,274 billion by the end of the period. The market share among telecom players is likely to stay largely unchanged during these years.

Based on this assumption,  private telecom companies are expected to improve their AGR (including NLD) market share by 10 to 50 basis points between FY25 and FY30.
The report also highlighted a fixed broadband macro model and expects the revenue from this segment to grow at a CAGR of 15.4 per cent during FY25-30.

Mentioning about satellite communication (Satcom),  the report states  that Starlink is primarily focusing its investments on fixed broadband services. Its direct-to-consumer (DTC) mobile offerings are aimed more at expanding coverage rather than disrupting the market. As a result, the report doesn’t foresee any major shake-up from Satcom in the near future.

It also highlights the growing pricing power of telecom operators, driven by a steady rise in service usage. From FY17 to FY25, voice usage (measured in minutes) grew at a CAGR of 12.6%, while data consumption surged at a CAGR of 37%.

(With Inputs from ANI)