Earth May Breach 1.5°C Climate Limit in Just 3 Years, Scientists Warn Every Fraction Matters

In a dire new climate warning, over 60 of the world’s top climate scientists have said that the Earth could exceed the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold in just three years if carbon emissions remain at current levels.

The 1.5°C target, set during the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, was designed to prevent the most dangerous impacts of climate change.

Despite international pledges, the continued burning of fossil fuels and deforestation are pushing the planet closer to irreversible damage.

Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds noted, “We’re seeing unprecedented changes—accelerated heating, rising sea levels—all linked to the very high levels of emissions.”

Carbon Budget Shrinking Rapidly: Just 130 Billion Tonnes Left

Back in 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could emit up to 500 billion tonnes of CO₂ for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C warming.

As of early 2025, that budget has dropped to just 130 billion tonnes. With current annual emissions at around 40 billion tonnes, this carbon budget could be exhausted in about three years.

In 2024, the Earth experienced its first full year where average global air temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While this does not yet constitute a formal breach of the Paris Agreement, it signals how dangerously close the world is to the limit.

Rate of Warming is Unprecedented in Geological History

Researchers estimate that the planet is currently warming at a rate of 0.27°C per decade—significantly faster than historical trends. If emissions remain high, the Earth is on track to cross the 1.5°C threshold permanently around 2030.

Although it’s theoretically possible to reduce warming after surpassing 1.5°C by removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, scientists caution against over-reliance on these technologies.

Professor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London warned, “For larger exceedances, it’s unlikely that carbon removal alone will undo the damage.”

Earth’s Energy Imbalance Now Alarming Scientists

One of the most concerning trends is the rapid increase in Earth’s energy imbalance—the rate at which excess heat is building up in the climate system.

This heating rate has doubled since the 1970s and is 25% higher than in the 2010s, according to Dr. Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office.

Around 90% of the extra heat is absorbed by the world’s oceans, causing them to expand and accelerating ice melt from glaciers. This has resulted in a doubling of the global sea level rise rate since the 1990s, threatening millions in coastal regions.

Clean Technologies Offer a Glimmer of Hope

Despite the troubling data, there are signs of progress. The rise in emissions appears to be slowing as nations adopt clean energy technologies. However, the scientists stress that emissions cuts must now be “rapid and stringent” to prevent further warming.

The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target is based on overwhelming evidence showing that climate impacts—such as extreme weather, sea level rise, and biodiversity loss—intensify dramatically with each fraction of a degree of warming. Prof. Rogelj emphasized, “Every bit of avoided warming reduces suffering and improves our chances of a livable future.”