Trump admin claims 1.6M illegal immigrants left US since Jan 2025; experts warn figures may be overstated. Photos/X.
The Trump administration has revealed that almost 1.6 million illegal immigrants have left the US since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term on January 20, 2025.
Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem made these claims on Thursday, citing a report from a restrictionist immigration group. However, experts warn that the estimate may be overstated.
“In less than 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have left the United States population. This is massive. This means safer streets, taxpayer savings, pressure off of schools and hospital services and better job opportunities for Americans,” Noem wrote in a social media post thanking President Donald Trump.
The figure, the Department of Homeland Security said, comes from a report by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), a group that describes itself as a “low immigration” advocate.
CIS itself highlighted several caveats regarding its estimate. The organization said its numbers are based on immigrants’ willingness to respond to the Current Population Survey (CPS), conducted by the Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which “does not specifically identify illegal immigrants.”
“Given the recent stepped-up enforcement efforts, it is possible that immigrants have become more reluctant to respond to the CPS,” the CIS report states.
The report also notes that legal immigrant estimates using administrative data through July 2025 are incomplete, which increases uncertainty regarding illegal immigrant numbers. “All this should be kept in mind when interpreting the figures presented here,” the report said.
Estimates of the total number of people living unlawfully in the US typically hover around 13 million. The CPS survey does not ask respondents about their immigration status, only their birthplace and citizenship.
Julia Gelatt, a senior policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute told The Hill that migrants might be reluctant to respond due to increased government data sharing.
“We know the government is sharing Medicaid and food stamps and other data with [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] (ICE) and so answering a government survey may feel particularly perilous right now for someone who doesn’t have firm legal status,” Gelatt said, adding that the survey is also a small sample size.
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Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
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