20 Million Indians Could Lose Their Jobs Warns Expert, Flags Middle-Class Crisis

Saurabh Mukherjea, the person behind Marcellus Investment Managers, has made a prophecy wherein he says that the number of jobless Indians is going to be as high as 20 million, thus giving a sign to a very deep crisis and to the middle class, in general, a very hard time. This is not just a temporary slump caused by the economic slowdown; on the contrary, it is a technology-induced change, which being pushed by the global trade restrictions is a rather slow process.

The traditional white-collar job machine, the very core that has lived the middle-class dream for decades, is gradually shutting down. Mukherjea’s conclusion suggests a turning point where employment in IT, banking, and media sectors is not only decreasing but also increasing in terms of the number of people ready to work in a very uncertain, gig-based economy.

Not only will the ones who already have a job in those sectors earn less (the bracket being ₹2 lakh and ₹5 lakh per annum), but also, they will be the most exposed in case of losing their jobs. This upheaval, he believes, will have a huge impact on India’s social and economic structure in about two to three years’ time.

Automation and AI Disruption

The major reason behind this loss of jobs is the quick acceptance of AI and automation by Indian companies. Even companies belonging to Mukherjea’s portfolio are using high-tech to increase efficiency and reduce the number of workers drastically. AI being used in the areas of finance, IT, and advertising which were once the domain of middle-tier employees, is not a mere speculation but an observable trend. 

The unyielding quest for efficiency permits large, successful companies to enlarge their operation without a corresponding addition to the workforce, thus, resulting in a great mismatch for the roughly 8 million graduates who get into the job market every year. The time of “office card and office cab drop” is almost gone, and it requires a change in mentality towards entrepreneurship and self-employment.

Mounting Debt and Global Trade Risk

India’s household debt is a major contributor to job market stress, which is compounded by the fact that it is among the highest in the world. With a large part of the white-collar workforce earning the same over the last ten years in real terms, many middle-class families have resorted to borrowing more to support their lifestyles and aspirations. 

Additionally, Mukherjea points out a major global risk factor: trade disputes between countries. He warns that if Indian exports continue to be subjected to US tariffs, then up to 20 million jobs might be lost in the Christmas season especially in the sectors that depend on exports. This would put the already deeply indebted households in India under more pressure.

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