Kerala Exit Poll Results 2026 Live: Pinarayi Vijayan Set To Be Dethroned? UDF Likely To Gain Majority With 70–80 Seats As LDF Trails, Check Full Breakdown Here As Congress Eyes Big Comeback

KERALA EXIT POLLS 2026 LIVE:  Voting for Kerala’s assembly elections took place in one phase on April 9. Kerala has a total of 140 assembly constituencies, which have been under the rule of the Left Democratic Front, which is led by CPI, since 2016. Kerala broke its every-five-year trend of having an alternative government in 2021 when the LDF government, headed by Pinarayi Vijayan, retained its power in the state.

In the 2026 elections to the Kerala assembly, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) alliance led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist had the support of the CPI, Kerala Congress-M, NCP (state unit), Janata Dal-Secular, Loktantrik Janata Dal, Congress-Secular, Indian National League, Kerala Congress-B, and Kerala Congress-Skaria Thomas. The United Democratic Front (UDF), on the other hand, is made up of the Indian National Congress, Indian Union Muslim League, Kerala Congress-Joseph, Kerala Congress-Jacob, and RSP (UDF unit).

Exit Poll Gives UDF Edge In Kerala With 70–80 Seats, LDF Trails

Kerala is heading into what looks like a tight race, if you go by the exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections. The numbers themselves are all over the place, but there are a few clear takeaways. Axis My India’s poll shows Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan still leads the pack when it comes to popularity, 33% of people they spoke to want him back as CM. V.D. Satheesan from the UDF sits much further back, with 21%. So, even with a tough contest, Vijayan’s personal appeal hasn’t faded.

But things start to look shaky for the ruling Left Democratic Front when you dig into the projected seat counts. Matrize, for example, says the Congress-led UDF could pull in 70 to 75 seats in the 140-member assembly. That’s enough to put them in charge. The LDF might land between 60 and 65 seats, keeping them close but not quite there. The BJP-led NDA, meanwhile, seems set for a minor showing, with just 3 to 5 seats.

People’s Pulse paints an even rosier picture for the UDF, predicting they might bag 75 to 85 seats and push the LDF down to 55 to 65. So, while it’s clear Vijayan is still the favourite for Chief Minister, the real question is if the LDF can actually turn his popularity into enough seats. The final count will make or break them.

People Pulse Exit Poll

DMK 125-145

ADMK 65-80

TVK 18-24

Others 2-6

Kerala Assembly Voter Turnout 2026  

Kerala saw some big numbers for voter turnout in the 2026 Assembly elections i.e. about 78.13%. That’s more than what we saw in 2021 (74.06%) and actually ranks as one of the highest turnouts ever for the state. Naturally, people started talking about whether the Congress party might reclaim power. Political analysts pointed to voter fatigue and anti-incumbency working against the ruling LDF government this time.

Kerala Exit Poll and Results 2021  

Back in 2021, most exit polls predicted a tight race but leaned toward the Left Democratic Front (LDF) leading. Numbers floated between 70 and 120 seats for the LDF, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) was expected to lag behind, somewhere around 20 to 70 seats. When the real votes came in, the LDF walked away with 99 seats and kept the government. The UDF scored 41 seats, and the NDA barely registered, hardly any impact.

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