How Exit Polls Fared In Bihar Elections 2025: Nitish Kumar Stuns With Historic Mandate, NDA’s Unstoppable Wave Crushes Mahagathbandhan

The Bihar Assembly election outcome has provided the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with an unbelievable triumph in the state. The re-election of the NDA government was a foregone conclusion, with the exit polls all showing unanimously positive results hence but the scale of the victory has surprised many an analyst and observer.

The NDA won more than 200 seats in the 243-member Assembly, a figure that broke all the forecasts as well as threw new light on the validity of exit surveys in the unpredictable Bihar political landscape.

‘Tiger Abhi Zinda Hai’: Here’s How Nitish Kumar Asserted Dominance

One message was made very clear by the 2025 elections; it was Tiger abhi zinda hai. Nitish Kumar and the NDA not only came to power again but came in with a resounding mandate. The figures were way above the most positive estimates.

Exit Polls Predicted Victory But Not a Political Earthquake

Various agencies predicted an NDA victory but estimated conservatively the size of the victory:

Axis My India: 121141 NDA 911 Mahagathbandhan.

Today Chanakya: 160 ( + / -12) to NDA; 77 ( + / -13) to opposition.

Matrize: 147 167 NDA; 70 90 Mahagathbandhan.

People Pulse 133-159 to NDA; 87-100 to Mahagathbandhan.

JVC, DVC Reach, Psephologist Polltrack, and People Insight: mid-130s to mid-150s NDA.

Apollo of Polls ( average estimate ) 146 seats to NDA- almost 60 seats less than the actual number.

In surveys, the NDA was depicted to be holding a strong but tainted lead. None of them came even close to seeing the dramatic rise that propelled the alliance to the point of 200 seats plus.

Exit Polls Once Again Underestimated the NDA Wave

During the countdown to the counting, analysts were not in agreement on any other point, but it was clear that the NDA was well placed to win the election. However, as history demonstrates, exit polls are often erroneous in Bihar.

2020 Elections: Nearly all exit polls had Mahagathbandhan winning. This turned out to be a miscalculation by them as NDA scooped up a total of seats of 125 seats with the Mahagathbandhan coming out with 110 seats- something that the few agencies did not see coming.

2015 Elections: The general trend had a solid NDA performance with most surveys forecasting that the alliance would have as many as 155 seats. Rather, the turnaround was catastrophic as the Mahagathbandhan carried the state with 177 seats as the NDA was left with only 58 seats.

2005 Elections: Once again, Pollsters predicted the trend of the outcome accurately, but the magnitude they predicted was drastically wrong, which preceded the trend of inconsistent predictions.

Familiar Question Returns: How Accurate Are Exit Polls in Bihar?

The 2025 outcomes have brought back an old controversy. Even with better methodology, superior sampling and the high-tech voter outreach, exit polls still grapple with the Bihar caste equations, non-voters, and panicky swings.

The recent performance this year, when actual figures rose way beyond what would have been anticipated by any margin, underscores the fact that Bihar is an extremely volatile and unpredictable electorate.

The NDA won with a resounding majority of 2025 in the NDA, this will be among the most overwhelming political mandates in the recent history of Bihar.

Although the victory itself was no surprise, the sheer magnitude of the victory highlights the long-lasting sway of Nitish Kumar and the chronic lack of accuracy of the exit poll in the state.

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