Indian Growth: RBI And Bank Of Baroda Project 6.5% Growth Amid Trade Concerns
Take a peek at India’s economic crystal ball—and you’ll see steady Growth. UBS projects India’s real GDP to rise at a 6–6.5% year‑on‑year clip in FY26, backed by resilient domestic demand and softer global crude prices. Tariff pressures may test the economy, but UBS argues India faces fewer global trade shocks than export-heavy Asian peers, thanks to its robust services exports—now nearly 47% of total exports. Analysts note that India receives a cumulative 100 bps repo rate cut already and may loosen another 25–50 bps if inflation stays tame. Anticipated cuts in retail fuel prices before Diwali and Bihar’s elections could further boost household income and consumption, the report adds.
UBS highlights India’s reliance on services over goods exports as a buffer in the event of global trade disruptions. The service sector now contributes nearly half of total exports, keeping India relatively insulated. Meanwhile, the government plans to accelerate capital expenditure to ease fiscal drag. UBS analysts suggest that prudent macro policies and domestic demand strength will sustain Growth even amid external volatility
India ended FY25 with a stellar 7.4% GDP growth in Q4 (Jan–Mar)—its best quarterly performance of the year, up from 6.2% in Q3. Economists credit robust domestic consumption, strong government investment, and limited export dependence. Chief Economic Advisor Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran affirmed, “India’s economy is in good shape despite the challenging global environment.”
The IMF projects India to maintain its status as the world’s fastest‑growing major economy, forecasting 6.2% growth in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. That keeps India ahead of regional and global peers in the near term, underlining the country’s rising economic influence.
(With Inputs From ANI…)
Also Read: Data Demand Explodes: India’s Edge Capacity Gears For 3x Growth
Aishwarya is a journalism graduate with over three years of experience thriving in the buzzing corporate media world. She’s got a knack for decoding business news, tracking the twists and turns of the stock market, covering the masala of the entertainment world, and sometimes her stories come with just the right sprinkle of political commentary. She has worked with several organizations, interned at ZEE and gained professional skills at TV9 and News24, And now is learning and writing at NewsX, she’s no stranger to the newsroom hustle. Her storytelling style is fast-paced, creative, and perfectly tailored to connect with both the platform and its audience. Moto: Approaching every story from the reader’s point of view, backing up her insights with solid facts.
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