Nifty Prediction March 9 (Photo: Canva)
Indian equity markets are likely to start the week on a weak note, with early indications from the GIFT Nifty pointing to another gap-down opening on Monday, March 9.
The warning comes after a volatile week, where Nifty 50 and Sensex saw sharp declines amid geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
At around 12:15 pm on Saturday, GIFT Nifty was trading 274 points lower at 24,300, down 1.11%, suggesting a potential gap-down opening for the Nifty 50. Analysts say this reflects investor caution ahead of global uncertainties and elevated crude prices triggered by the escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict.
The Indian stock market closed the week under pressure. The Nifty 50 fell 2.9% to 24,450, while the Sensex dropped 2.9% to 78,919. The Bank Nifty underperformed, sliding 4.5% to 57,783.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted, “Indian equity markets remained volatile and under sustained selling pressure in the week ended March 6, 2026, as geopolitical risks and rising crude oil prices dampened investor sentiment.”
The escalation of Middle East tensions has been a major trigger for market weakness. Concerns over tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above $90–95 per barrel during the week.
Higher oil prices are especially concerning for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, as this could widen the current account deficit, fuel inflation, pressure the rupee, and increase costs in sectors like transportation, power, cement, and refining.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained cautious, offloading equities worth ₹21,831 crore in the first week of March. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided support, buying equities worth ₹32,787 crore during the same period.
Market experts say the 24,300 level will be critical in the coming sessions. Ponmudi R added, “A sustained break below 24,400 could extend the decline toward 24,300–24,200, which has acted as a demand zone previously. On the upside, 24,700–24,900 remains key resistance.”
Momentum indicators are also weak, with RSI in the mid-30s and MACD in negative territory, signaling near-oversold conditions.
Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, explained that Nifty is now trading below its 200-day EMA, showing a deepening bearish trend. He added, “The 24,300 level is make-or-break, and a breakdown here could push Nifty toward the 24,000 psychological mark. Resistance lies at 24,700 and 25,000.”
Three key factors are expected to influence market direction this week:
Developments in the Middle East conflict
Movements in crude oil prices
Foreign institutional investor flows
Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered research analyst and founder of Livelong Wealth, said, “GIFT Nifty around 24,300 shows a bearish undertone compared with last week’s Nifty close of 24,450. Volatility remains high, reflecting growing investor uncertainty.”
For the Sensex, 78,500–78,800 remains the crucial support zone, while 79,800 may act as immediate resistance. Ponmudi R warned, “A sustained break below support could drag the index toward 77,200–77,000. Immediate resistance is near 79,800, where selling pressure has been observed.”
Given the heightened geopolitical risks and FII outflows, market experts recommend a cautious approach. Mishra said, “Investors should remain disciplined. Selective opportunities may appear in sectors such as pharma, defence, public sector enterprises, and energy. Rate-sensitive sectors could face pressure if crude prices stay elevated.”
With GIFT Nifty signaling a weak start, rising oil prices, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, Indian markets may open lower on Monday, March 9. Investors should watch critical support and resistance levels closely and adopt a cautious, sector-selective approach.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. For investment or trading decisions, please consult a certified financial advisor or expert.
Sofia Babu Chacko is a journalist with over five years of experience covering Indian politics, crime, human rights, gender issues, and stories about marginalized communities. She believes that every voice matters, and journalism has a vital role to play in amplifying those voices. Sofia is committed to creating impact and shedding light on stories that truly matter. Beyond her work in the newsroom, she is also a music enthusiast who enjoys singing.
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