Assam Exit Poll 2026 predicts BJP landslide. Photo: ANI.
Assam Exit Poll 2026: Multiple exit polls for the Assam Assembly elections indicate a decisive victory for the BJP-led alliance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Most agencies have projected a landslide win for the ruling coalition, while the Congress-led alliance is expected to trail significantly.
According to Axis My India, the BJP+ alliance is projected to secure between 88 and 100 seats, suggesting a near clean sweep in the 126-member Assembly. In contrast, the Congress+ alliance is estimated to win between 24 and 36 seats.
Similarly, People’s Insight has forecast 88 to 96 seats for the BJP+ alliance, while projecting 30 to 34 seats for the Congress+ bloc.
A look back at 2021 and 2016 Assam Exit Polls reveals how closely projections aligned with final results and where they fell short.
Matrize has predicted 85-95 to BJP led NDA while INC is likely to win 25-32 seats. 6-12 have been given to others.
PMARQ is giving 82-94 seats to BJP led NDA while 30-40 seats to Congress lead coalition/ 1-5 seats have been predicted to others.
In the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, most exit polls correctly predicted the return of the BJP to power, with projections falling within a narrow margin of error.
The BJP and its allies ultimately secured 75 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 64. The Congress-led alliance won 50 seats, while one seat went to an Independent candidate.
While a majority of pollsters forecast a clear win for the BJP, two agencies, TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat and India Ahead-P Marq, projected a hung Assembly.
Among the agencies, India News–Jan Ki Baat and News24–Today’s Chanakya delivered the closest estimates. India News–Jan Ki Baat projected the BJP tally between 70 and 81 seats and the Congress between 45 and 55. News24–Today’s Chanakya predicted 70 seats for the BJP and 56 for the Congress.
On average, exit poll estimates slightly underestimated the BJP’s performance by about four seats, while overestimating the Congress by a similar margin.
| Agency | BJP+ | Cong+ |
|---|---|---|
| Republic-CNX | 74–84 | 40–50 |
| India Today–Axis My India | 75–85 | 40–50 |
| India News–Jan Ki Baat | 70–81 | 45–55 |
| ABP News–CVoter | 58–71 | 53–66 |
| News24–Today’s Chanakya | 70 | 56 |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh–Polstrat | 59–69 | 55–65 |
| Times Now–CVoter | 65 | 59 |
| India Ahead–P Marq | 62–70 | 56–64 |
| Average of Polls | 71 | 54 |
| Actual Results | 75 | 50 |
A similar trend was visible in the 2016 Assembly elections, when exit polls indicated a strong showing by the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which was aiming to form the government in Assam for the first time.
The India Today-Axis poll projected 79 to 93 seats for the NDA, compared to 26 to 33 for the Congress. It also estimated 6 to 10 seats for the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), with a few seats going to other parties.
Other pollsters showed this momentum. ABP News projected around 81 seats for the NDA and 33 for the Congress, while NewsX–Chanakya estimated an even higher tally of about 90 seats for the NDA and 27 for the Congress.
| Agency | NDA (BJP+) | Congress | AIUDF | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India Today–Axis My India | 79–93 | 26–33 | 6–10 | Few |
| ABP News | ~81 | 33 | — | — |
| NewsX–Chanakya | ~90 | 27 | — | — |
| Actual Results | 86* | 26 | — | — |
The actual results in 2016 confirmed the broader direction indicated by exit polls. The BJP emerged as the single largest party with 60 seats. With the support of its allies, the NDA crossed the majority threshold of 64 seats and formed the government.
The result ended the Congress party’s 15-year rule in the state. The Congress, which had been in power since 2001, was reduced to 26 seats in that election.
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
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