Exit Polls 2026: Which Pollsters Get It Spot On, Who Misses Big? A Look at India’s Most Accurate Exit Pollsters

Exit poll projections for Assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and the Union Territory of Puducherry were released from 6:30 pm on Wednesday, following the conclusion of voting in all phases.  Polling in Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry was conducted in a single phase on April 9. Tamil Nadu also voted in one phase on April 23, which coincided with the first phase of voting in West Bengal. The eastern state completed its second and final phase of polling on Wednesday, after which exit poll trends were made public.

West Bengal Exit Polls: Tight Contest Between BJP and TMC

Exit poll projections for West Bengal present a mixed picture, with most agencies indicating a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), while one poll suggests a decisive win for the incumbent.

Peoples Pulse

TMC+: 177–187

BJP: 95–110

Left Front+: 0–1

INC: 1–3

Others: 1–2

Matrize

TMC+: 125–140

BJP: 146–161

Left Front+: 0

INC: 0

Others: 6–10

P-Marq

TMC+: 118–138

BJP: 150–175

Left Front+: 0

INC: 0

Others: 2–6

Poll Diary

TMC+: 99–127

BJP: 142–171

Left Front: 2–3

INC: 3–5

Others: 0–1

While Peoples Pulse projects a comfortable win for the TMC-led alliance, other agencies such as Matrize, P-Marq, and Poll Diary indicate a narrow edge for the BJP.

Kerala Exit Polls: UDF Projected to Return to Power

In Kerala, most exit polls suggest a comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), potentially unseating the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF).

Peoples Pulse

LDF: 55–65

UDF: 75–85

NDA: 0–3

Matrize

LDF: 60–65

UDF: 70–75

NDA: 3–5

Others: 2–4

Axis My India

LDF: 49–62

UDF: 78–90

NDA: 0–3

Others: 0

Across agencies, the UDF is consistently projected to secure a majority, while the BJP-led NDA is expected to remain a marginal player.

Exit Polls and Their Track Record

Exit polls are based on voter responses collected immediately after they cast their ballots. Over time, several agencies, including Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, IPSOS, CVoter, and CSDS, have developed reputations for forecasting electoral outcomes.

Among them, Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, and CVoter are often regarded as relatively reliable, with a track record of accurately predicting winning alliances. Axis My India is particularly known for its extensive sample sizes, while Today’s Chanakya has demonstrated strength in estimating vote shares at the national level.

Exit Polls Mostly Have Gone Wrong

Despite their popularity, exit polls are not infallible and have, at times, produced inaccurate projections.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls predicted the NDA would secure between 240 and 278 seats, but the alliance ultimately won only 187. Similarly, during the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, forecasts suggested a hung assembly with the BJP expected to win 161–210 seats. The actual result, however, saw the BJP secure a landslide victory with 312 out of 403 seats.

More recently, exit polls for the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections projected a Congress majority with around 48 seats in the 90-member House. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP went on to win 48 seats.

Which Exit Poll Agencies Get It Right?

Looking at past Assembly elections, Axis My India has frequently come closest to actual results. CVoter, too, has maintained consistency over time, although its projections tend to have slightly wider margins of error compared to some competitors.

While exit polls offer an early indication of electoral trends, their projections should be interpreted with caution until official results are declared.

Also Read: Assam Exit Poll Results 2026 Live: Himanta Biswa Sarma’s BJP Set For Historic Hat-Trick, Pollsters Predict 100-Seat Sweep, Congress Wipeout