Who Will Be Kerala’s Next CM? UDF Rift Deepens As Exit Polls Favour Return After A Decade

Kerala’s political heat is getting more complicated as per the latest reports coming from ‘God’s Own Country’. If the recent exit poll projections prove correct, then the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is looking to make its long-awaited political return to Kerala that too mainly after a decade at least, if the Congress high command has not decided otherwise. But then, even before the final counting would be declared, a big battle for the chief ministerial post within the alliance has begun to overshadow everything. With a host of senior leaders like VD Satheeshan, KC Venugopal, Ramesh Chennithala appearing before the limelight, and allies entering the fray, the battle for leadership is turning out to be the test of togetherness. The main question is will they win this unity test? The support given to Congress’ Leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan by Indian Union Muslim League, further stoked the debate, even though the Congress high command is the final authority.

V D Satheesan Front-Runner for CM?

Satheesan has become the frontrunner not only because of the public perception but also because indirectly, of the IUML leadership. Having played the leading role in the opposition against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan for the past five years, Satheesan has strengthened his position and popularity in UDF. The exit polls, which projected Satheesan as the most preferred Congress face, only supported his claim. With IUML leaders even hinting that it should be the public opinion that guides the way, Satheesan has become the frontrunner.

How Strong Are Other Contenders Like Chennithala and KC?

Despite the perceived popularity of Satheesan, the race is not against the clock. Senior leader Ramesh Chennithala is a strong force because of his experience and close association with the party leadership. Meanwhile, K C Venugopal has introduced a new variable. Being close to the Congress high command, Venugopal’s entry into the mix has made things more complicated. So many other party candidates have been aligned with him.

What is the Role of High Command of Congress?

After all, it would be the Congress high command at the national level that would make the call on who will be the next chief minister of Kerala. The process would see consultations with new MLAs followed by a legislative party meeting. As minister and senior leader Tariq Anwar stated, the high command would appoint an observer and make the call based on consensus or majority opinion. There is ambiguity in this centralised decision-making process that will have all contenders in the mix.

Has the Support of IUML Created a Rift?

The IUML’s overt support for Satheesan has created a tussle in the UDF. Many consider such a move by an ally as being a harbinger of outsiders influencing internal decisions. Vellappally Natesan has gone even further by saying that if the UDF wins the election, it is the IUML that would take governance.

What Do Exit Polls Say for UDF and Kerala?

The majority of the exit polls are expecting a clear advantage for the UDF, with a seat-bank of 70 to 90 in a 140-seat Assembly, which is above the 71-seat majority. The LDF is likely to be in the second position, whereas the NDA is likely to gain marginal seats. To put it simply, if the exit polls are accurate, then the power dynamics of the state are likely to change after two terms of the LDF in charge.

Will Unity Stand If UDF Retains Power?

This is a doubtful question for UDF. In the past years as well, there were a lot of arguments and disagreements that happened within the UDF, especially among congress leaders. Many memes and trolls have been circulating in social media that clearly proves the unclear nature of UDF leadership. The electoral prospects of the UDF is clear, but the internal power-struggle is bound to put a strain on the alliance. The lack of a clear consensus-candidate and multiple power-centres is likely to put strain on the relations of the UDF allies at the time when they are in charge. While Kerala waits for the final results, the bigger question is whether the UDF can present a united front in governance and handle the differences.

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