Exit poll projections for Assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and the Union Territory of Puducherry were released from 6:30 pm on Wednesday, following the conclusion of voting in all phases. Polling in Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry was conducted in a single phase on April 9. Tamil Nadu also voted in one phase on April 23, which coincided with the first phase of voting in West Bengal. The eastern state completed its second and final phase of polling on Wednesday, after which exit poll trends were made public.
West Bengal Exit Polls: Tight Contest Between BJP and TMC
Exit poll projections for West Bengal present a mixed picture, with most agencies indicating a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), while one poll suggests a decisive win for the incumbent.
Peoples Pulse
TMC+: 177–187
BJP: 95–110
Left Front+: 0–1
INC: 1–3
Others: 1–2
Matrize
TMC+: 125–140
BJP: 146–161
Left Front+: 0
INC: 0
Others: 6–10
P-Marq
TMC+: 118–138
BJP: 150–175
Left Front+: 0
INC: 0
Others: 2–6
Poll Diary
TMC+: 99–127
BJP: 142–171
Left Front: 2–3
INC: 3–5
Others: 0–1
While Peoples Pulse projects a comfortable win for the TMC-led alliance, other agencies such as Matrize, P-Marq, and Poll Diary indicate a narrow edge for the BJP.
Kerala Exit Polls: UDF Projected to Return to Power
In Kerala, most exit polls suggest a comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), potentially unseating the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF).
Peoples Pulse
LDF: 55–65
UDF: 75–85
NDA: 0–3
Matrize
LDF: 60–65
UDF: 70–75
NDA: 3–5
Others: 2–4
Axis My India
LDF: 49–62
UDF: 78–90
NDA: 0–3
Others: 0
Across agencies, the UDF is consistently projected to secure a majority, while the BJP-led NDA is expected to remain a marginal player.
Exit Polls and Their Track Record
Exit polls are based on voter responses collected immediately after they cast their ballots. Over time, several agencies, including Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, IPSOS, CVoter, and CSDS, have developed reputations for forecasting electoral outcomes.
Among them, Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, and CVoter are often regarded as relatively reliable, with a track record of accurately predicting winning alliances. Axis My India is particularly known for its extensive sample sizes, while Today’s Chanakya has demonstrated strength in estimating vote shares at the national level.
Exit Polls Mostly Have Gone Wrong
Despite their popularity, exit polls are not infallible and have, at times, produced inaccurate projections.
In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls predicted the NDA would secure between 240 and 278 seats, but the alliance ultimately won only 187. Similarly, during the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, forecasts suggested a hung assembly with the BJP expected to win 161–210 seats. The actual result, however, saw the BJP secure a landslide victory with 312 out of 403 seats.
More recently, exit polls for the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections projected a Congress majority with around 48 seats in the 90-member House. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP went on to win 48 seats.
Which Exit Poll Agencies Get It Right?
Looking at past Assembly elections, Axis My India has frequently come closest to actual results. CVoter, too, has maintained consistency over time, although its projections tend to have slightly wider margins of error compared to some competitors.
While exit polls offer an early indication of electoral trends, their projections should be interpreted with caution until official results are declared.
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
