Will Vijay Ally With AIADMK? Post-Poll Speculation Intensifies As TVK’s Exit Poll Performance Sparks Talks

With the Tamil Nadu political equation now set to undergo a fresh churn, political circles are debating a possible post-poll alliance between the AIADMK and actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in the backdrop of exit poll projections hinting at a freshly cut TVK in the 234-member Assembly. AIADMK may signal an option to open communication lines with Vijay’s party and a final decision on it will depend on the seat tally. With vote counting on May 4, a realignment has added spice to an already spicy electoral battle.

What Do Exit Polls Say About TVK’s Performance?

Projections by Axis My India suggest TVK is tipped to bring home a score in the range of 98-120 seats, giving it a close contest with Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance, which are tipped to win in the range of 92-110 seats. The National Democratic Alliance is tipped to bring home 22-32 seats. Projections also suggest TVK could command a vote share of around 35 per cent, which equals the ruling bloc, while the AIADMK-led alliance is tipped to be around 23 per cent each. This has raised a kingmaker tag for the Vijay-led party, and this has led to speculation over the possible alliances.

Why AIADMK May Be Willing to Talk to Vijay? Speculations grow

AIADMK may show willingness to talk to TVK after exit polls as his popularity surge after exit polls. After electoral defeats over the past few years, the party is now considering all options to make a comeback. A massive turn for TVK, should that happen, could make Vijay a key figure in government or opposition-building exercise. 

How Popular Is Vijay among youth?

Exit poll data reveals an expanding influence for Vijay especially among youth. It is projected to have 68 per cent first-time voters (age 18-19), 59 per cent of voters aged 20-29 and 45 per cent in the 30-39 age group. It also reportedly gained support among students, unemployed youth and urban voters, and penetrated among OBC, SC communities, minorities and rural voters. Vijay was also voted as a popular choice for Chief Minister with 37 per cent support, ahead of incumbent M. K. Stalin at 35 per cent.

Is Anti-Incumbency Behind TVK’s Rise?

Any projection of TVK’s performance was likely to be influenced by the desire for change. Nearly 35 per cent of the respondents wanted change, and 77 per cent of TVK supporters gave it a higher value. This has given Vijay a platform to present himself as a viable alternative to the old Dravidian-style politics of DMK and AIADMK.

While exit polls have fuelled speculation, the verdict is yet to be revealed. Exit polls, like any other survey, can be misleading as it does not represent the final mood of the electorate. The final outcome on May 4 will decide TVK’s projected momentum into seats and whether alliance negotiations will materialise. As long as uncertainty surrounds whether Vijay will enter into an alliance with AIADMK, Tamil Nadu’s political watchers are in for a roller-coaster ride.

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