Chanakya Exit Polls 2026 OUT: The Chanakya Exit Polls 2026 have given us a glimpse of the mood of the voters in states such as Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry after a highly competitive round of Assembly polls. The projections from the post-poll surveys are of a big margin in a few states and close races in others. Assam is likely to have a decisive win for the BJP-led alliance, Tamil Nadu is likely to usher in another term for the DMK-led bloc led by MK Stalin and Kerala is likely to remain close along with a slim edge for the UDF. Of course, these projections are only indicative and will be measured when the results come in on May 4.
Who Is Leading in Assam According to Chanakya Exit Polls?
In Assam, the exit polls predict a crushing majority for the BJP-led alliance. The NDA is likely to bag 102 ± 9 seats out of the 126-member Assembly, well above the majority mark of 64. The Asom Sonmilito Morcha led by Congress is likely to trail behind with 23 ± 9 seats and the rest will have no more than 1 ± 1 seat.
On vote share, the BJP+ is likely to get 50% ± 3% whereas Congress+ is likely to fare in the margins of 38% ± 3%. The projections suggest a one-sided bout in the state.
What do the projections say about the fight in Tamil Nadu?
Tamil Nadu is poised for a clear mandate for the DMK+ alliance. The DMK+ alliance projects to win over 125 seats, according to Today’s Chanakya, and this spells a decisive return of the Chief Minister MK Stalin to power. The AIADMK-led bloc would win around 45 ± 11 seats.
As the numbers clearly point to the DMK+ winning a clear victory, this is an indication of a voter consensus and stability in continuity of the ruling regime.
Is it a close race between UDF and LDF in Kerala?
It is a near contest in Kerala. The exit polls project UDF to win 69 ± 9 seats, while the incumbent LDF is behind by just 5 seats at 64 ± 9. The NDA is projected to win about 7 ± 4 seats, while others are not projected to have a presence.
The disparity between the two main fronts is just 5 seats and it is likely that Kerala could witness one of the closest contests.
What is the verdict in West Bengal and Puducherry?
Though Today’s Chanakya has not shared detailed seat projections in West Bengal and Puducherry, the general trend across pollsters indicates competitive contests. Unlike the verdict in Assam and Tamil Nadu where a clear lead is visible, these two states could witness a more fragmented verdict, thus becoming states to be closely watched on counting day. BJP is winning in West bengal.
Is an exit poll accurate?
Exit polls, including Today’s Chanakya’s, are based on surveys with voters once the ballots are thrown in the boxes. The exit poll provides a ‘first glimpse’ of the verdict but is not a definitive vote-cast. The final verdict will only be known on May 4 when the votes are counted. Till then, the projections can give a ‘taste’ of the possible verdict but should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Sofia Babu Chacko is a journalist with over five years of experience reporting on Indian politics, crime, human rights, gender issues, and stories about marginalized communities. She believes journalism plays a crucial role in amplifying unheard voices and bringing attention to issues that truly matter. Sofia has contributed articles to The New Indian Express, Youth Ki Awaaz, and Maktoob Media. She is also a recipient of the 2025 Laadli Media Awards for gender sensitivity. Beyond the newsroom, she is a music enthusiast who enjoys singing. Connect with Sofia on X: https://x.com/SBCism
