The 2026 West Bengal election has provided a rare twist in the world of exit polls as a leading pollster has decided to skip publishing its projections. While agencies were busy unveiling their projections, startup Axis My India has cited a major hitch with voter silence. Founder Pradeep Gupta said to NDTV that a large chunk of voters were uncooperative during post-poll surveys, raising questions over data integrity. The development has raised questions over the credibility of exit polls, in a state which is witnessing the fiercest contest between BJP and Trinamool Congress (TMC).
What Happened With Axis My India In West Bengal 2026?
For the first time, Axis My India opted out of revealing its exit poll projections for West Bengal 2026. Pradeep Gupta revealed that there was no “representative sample” to go by. While the pollster is heavily dependent on face-to-face interactions, voters this time around were not willing to cooperate. Gupta said that nearly 60-70% of voters did not even respond to basic questions and there was no way to make a credible projection.
In a statement to NDTV, Gupta said that voters were “not even ready to say yes or no” when asked a question. He added that the pollsters encountered a “wall of silence” during the surveys, even after the first phase of polling. With just 20-30% response rates, the sample size fell well short of the limit for a reliable projection. “As long as our sample is not representative, we do not believe it is right to predict any number,” he said, reiterating the agency’s caution.
Why Is Voter Non-Response A Major Risk For Exit Polls?
Exit polls rely on voluntary participation of voters to understand electoral trends. If the majority of voters decide not to respond, the data becomes distorted and unreliable. The unusual high non-response tilted the methodology of Axis My India which prioritises direct voter interaction. This silence shows a broader challenge in politically sensitive states. Where the electorate may refuse to reveal their choice.
In the absence of Axis My India, several pollsters have announced a divided report. Matrize and P-Marq gave BJP the edge crossing the majority mark of 148. Poll Diary also predicted a BJP majority. However, People’s Pulse gave the incumbent TMC a chance to stay in power but with reduced tally. The opposing results suggest a close race.
What’s At Stake In West Bengal 2026 Elections?
The state went to polls in two phases on April 23 and 29 in 294 seats. The incumbent TMC of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is eyeing the fourth consecutive term. The BJP is looking to clinch the state for the first-time. The verdict on May 4 would be a make or break for the state as TMC rule or a historic political change.
What Are Political Leaders Saying About Exit Polls?
BJP leaders have said they are confident of forming the government and that exit polls are just estimates. Citing previous elections where the predictions did not materialise, BJP spokespersons dismissed the exit polls. BJP leaders in the state said that mood of the people is for change and that is evident from feedback at the grassroots layer and the turnout.
The reluctance of voters to reveal their choice has added a mystery to West Bengal elections. Whether it is a sign of trepidation or fear or ambiguity is something that is yet to be deciphered. However, Axis My India’s choice says something; without proper data, even the most experienced pollsters would prefer to stay quiet than to speculate.
Sofia Babu Chacko is a journalist with over five years of experience reporting on Indian politics, crime, human rights, gender issues, and stories about marginalized communities. She believes journalism plays a crucial role in amplifying unheard voices and bringing attention to issues that truly matter. Sofia has contributed articles to The New Indian Express, Youth Ki Awaaz, and Maktoob Media. She is also a recipient of the 2025 Laadli Media Awards for gender sensitivity. Beyond the newsroom, she is a music enthusiast who enjoys singing. Connect with Sofia on X: https://x.com/SBCism
