Syria’s New Wave of Violence: How Sectarian Clashes Could Redraw Regional Alliances | Explained

Syria has been rocked by a new wave of violence that has reportedly left hundreds dead and exposed deep cracks in the country’s fragile postwar order. What began as a local clash in the south has seemingly spiralled into an international incident, pulling in Israel, all while raising tensions among Syria’s minorities, and threatening to upend regional alliances just months after Bashar Assad’s ouster.

Clashes in Sweida Ignite the Flame

The violence began last Sunday in Sweida, a southern Syrian province which is home to the Druze minority, according to a report published by The Associated Press on Saturday. Fierce clashes broke out between Druze militias and local Sunni Bedouin tribes, which in turn saw government forces’ intervention in the conflict. However, instead of ensuring calm, the forces reportedly tried to wrest control of the area from Druze groups, a move that eventually escalated the chaos.

Soon after, reports emerged of atrocities being committed by Syrian government fighters, including the execution of some Druze civilians and repeated torching of their houses.

Meanwhile, Israel launched a series of strikes on Syrian military targets in retaliation, including on the Defense Ministry in Damascus and sites near the presidential palace.

Israel, for its part, has said the strikes were aimed at sending an ultimatum to interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa — once a leader of Islamist rebels — who, experts suggest, is now seeking to appease the West while trying to project a rather moderate image back home.

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Israel Steps In, and So Does the US

The Druze are seen as a loyal minority within Israel, with many believed to be serving in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).  

By midweek, a ceasefire was announced, which effectively saw Syrian government forces withdrawing from the area, and Druze factions reportedly taking over security in Sweida. 

As the situation on ground stabilised amid reports of scattered fighting, US envoy Tom Barrack announced a separate ceasefire between Syria and Israel on Saturday, with analysts concerned that the truce won’t hold.

Minorities Fear for Their Future

The deadly week of clashes in the region isn’t the first post-Assad outbreak of sectarian violence. A few months ago, coastal clashes involving Alawites — Assad’s own religious group — culminated  in mass killings, further scaring other minorities like the Druze and Kurds, as reported by the US-based news agency.

Bassam Alahmad of Syrians for Truth and Justice told The Associated Press that minority groups have been sidelined in Syria’s new power structure. 

Underlining that Syria is currently under “a transitional period”, Alahmad told the publication, “We should have a dialogue, and they (the minorities) should feel that they’re a real part of the state.”. However, this week’s show of force in Sweida sent a different message.

“Bashar Assad tried this way,” Alahmad reportedly said, while stressing that “it failed”.

Others have expressed concern that the government’s retreat from Sweida may spark calls for wider autonomy, which could potentially splinter the country further. “If Damascus cedes security control of Sweida, everyone else is going to demand the same thing,” the AP quoted Abdel Hakim al-Masri, a former regional official, as saying.

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What Happens to Israel-Syria Talks Now?

In recent months, with the US backing, Syria and Israel are believed to have explored a normalisation in ties, a rather fragile effort that now appears to be at risk.

“I don’t know how the Israelis could expect to drop bombs on Damascus and still have some kind of normal dialogue with the Syrians,” Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center, told AP.

Still, some American officials like UN Ambassador Dorothy Shea remain hopeful, while reportedly saying that Washington is “engaging diplomatically with Israel and Syria at the highest levels”.

Turkey Waiting in the Wings

With the US pulling out of Syria, Turkey has reportedly been eyeing a key role, especially as Kurdish forces remain powerful in the northeast.

Kurdish-led SDF forces had agreed months ago to integrate with Syria’s new army, but the plan appears to have been stalled. Now, with the government;s recent handling of Sweida violence, reports suggest the Kurds could be rethinking their trust in Damascus.

“The government came out of this looking defeated,” Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group said, according to AP.

While Israel is believed to be a potential backer, Turkey, which views the SDF as terrorists, might never stand for it. Some analysts suggest this crisis could push Syria closer to Ankara, with talks of a defense pact possibly back on the table.