When Will Monsoon Reach Kerala? Check The Latest Onset Date Forecast By IMD

The southeast monsoon could also be delayed over Kerala as the latest model runs of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggest the necessary upper-level winds to promote a strong onset would be established only after June 5-6. The IMD’s Global Forecast System (GFS) foretells that the monsoon’s entry into Kerala would be slow and shaky, rather than strong, meaning the onset of the rain will be weak before gaining strength. The new forecasts followed the weather agency’s previous predictions, which were not fully realized for the onset of the monsoon around May 26 and then in the second week of June from June 2 to 4. While the pre monsoon rains have already seen some areas of Kerala experience rainfall, the full set of conditions necessary for an official declaration of monsoon onset is still developing, meteorologists say.

When Will Monsoon Reach Kerala? Check Latest Date

According To Media reports, The southwest monsoon is now predicted to move into portions of Kerala and adjacent Tamil Nadu in the next three to four days, according to the most recent forecasts. Strong moisture inflows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are supporting the monsoon, which is effectively hovering around Kerala’s coastline, according to weather experts. However, broad and persistent monsoon rainfall has not yet established itself throughout the state.

Why Is There A Delay In Monsoon Reaching Kerala?

The IMD‘s current analysis blamed the deferment on an incoming western disturbance which brings moisture from the west and affects the movement of air over northern India. It has to travel away for the upper level easterly winds that prevail over southern India to build up enough strength to support a strong monsoon flow. Currently, rainfall and cloudiness over Kerala are mostly satisfying the necessary conditions for monsoon declaration, while the westerly winds near the Arabian Sea are still not strong enough. Another factor cited was recent cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal that stunted and weakened the monsoon wind change, delaying the season’s progress towards the Indian continent.

What Are The Three Conditions Stated By IMD Regarding Monsoon In Kerala?

The IMD says that three conditions are necessary for the official declaration of the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala. These include rain in the state of Kerala for more than 60 per cent of the monitoring stations; enough cloud cover and strong enough westerly winds over the Arabian Sea. Weather scientists think that the wind flow may start gathering force in the next few days, paving the way for the monsoon to enter into Kerala soon. Forecasters now believe that the monsoon is right at the southern coast and could get here in days if the weather conditions remain favorable.

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