Donald Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan boosts his Nobel Peace Prize odds to 6%, while Israel-Hamas hostages set for release. Photo: X.
Donald Trump Nobel Peace Prize: US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced the Gaza Peace Plan as Israel and Hamas agreed to the President’s peace deal. Post the development, online betting sites say that POTUS has a 6 per cent chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. The US President, over the past few months, has shown a desire to receive the coveted prize. He has claimed to resolve seven wars across the world, a claim contested by several fact checkers.
Polymarket, a U.S.-based prediction market, said that the probability of US President receiving the Nobel Peace Prize stood at 6 percent as of Thursday. Before the Gaza deal, Trump’s chances to win the prize peaked to 4.9 percent on Sunday before falling to 2.7 percent on Tuesday.
The Gaza peace deal has increased the odds of Trump getting the prize. The award will be revealed on October 10, a day after Israel and Hamas agreed on the first phase of what he called the “Gaza Peace Plan.”
“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first phase of our Peace Plan,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday.
“This means that all of the hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agreed-upon line as the first steps toward a strong, durable and everlasting peace.”
White House called Trump a ‘President of Peace,’ while Trump himself showed his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize in the same Truth Social post, writing, “Blessed are the peacemakers.”
According to the betting sites, Sudan-based local activist network ‘Emergency Response Rooms’ has the highest chance of winning the prize. It is listed with a 28 percent chance. It is followed by Doctors Without Borders followed with a 13 percent chance, and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), with a 7 percent chance.
Betsson, a Sweden-based online betting platform, puts Trump’s chances of winning the prize at 6 to 1. According to this group, Abir Haj Ibrahim, a Syrian peace activist, has the chances of 4.5 to 1, and the UN World Food Programme is put at 5 to 1.
The group also lists Yulia Navalnaya, who is the widow of Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, who died of poisoning in prison. He stays with the odds of 5 to 1. The person or group with the lower odds has the highest chances of winning.
Donald Trump on Thursday responded to the question of whether he expects to win the Nobel. He said, “I have no idea, Marco [Rubio] would tell you we settled seven wars.”
“We’re close to settling an eighth,” he said. “I think we’ll end up settling the Russia situation. I don’t think anybody in history has settled that many. But perhaps they’ll find a reason not to give it to me.”
Zubair Amin is a Senior Journalist at NewsX with over seven years of experience in reporting and editorial work. He has written for leading national and international publications, including Foreign Policy Magazine, Al Jazeera, The Economic Times, The Indian Express, The Wire, Article 14, Mongabay, News9, among others. His primary focus is on international affairs, with a strong interest in US politics and policy. He also writes on West Asia, Indian polity, and constitutional issues. Zubair tweets at zubaiyr.amin
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